Seahawks-49ers Betting Preview: How Sharps Have Driven This Line

Seahawks-49ers Betting Preview: How Sharps Have Driven This Line article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman

Betting odds: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

  • Spread: 49ers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Seattle has been hot as of late, but sharps are fading the Seahawks hard. The Niners are commanding just one-third of the spread bets, but three-quarters of the cash as of writing (see live odds here).

There has also been a reverse line move triggered on San Fran, which is a great indicator of sharp action.

Since opening, the Seahawks have fallen from -6.5 to -3.5 thanks to this pros vs. Joes split. Mark Gallant

Weather report: The forecast is currently calling for overcast conditions with 60 degree temps, which is pretty solid compared to the rest of the league. The average wind speed of 11 mph is a cause for concern, though … for over bettors.

Games have gone under more than 55% of the time with double-digit wind speeds, according to our Bet Labs data. Gallant

Trends to know: Seattle is 8-3-2 against the spread this season while San Francisco is 4-9 ATS.

In November or later, it’s been profitable to bet bad ATS teams that have covered 30% or less of games against good ATS teams that have covered 60% or more of games: 78-45-3 (63%) ATS. John Ewing

Did you know? The Seahawks are the NFL’s most profitable team this season against the second-half spread, going 10-3 and covering by 3.4 points per game. Evan Abrams

Russell Wilson is 12-2 straight-up and 11-2-1 (84.6%) ATS against the 49ers, covering the spread by 6.5 points per game. The 49ers are by far Wilson’s most profitable opponent by almost six full units more than his next.

Wilson and the Seahawks beat the 49ers, easily covering the 10-point spread just two weeks ago. Wilson is 27-16-2 (62.8%) ATS when facing a team the second time after beating them by double-digits in their first meeting. That includes 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when facing the 49ers in this spot. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Seahawks offense vs. 49ers defense

The 49ers’ 22nd-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA will be tasked with containing one of the most efficient offenses in the league.

The Seahawks’ passing and rushing offenses rank sixth in efficiency in terms of offensive DVOA. Wilson has been ridiculously efficient, sporting an 8.4% touchdown rate, which trails only Patrick Mahomes this season.

Russell-Wilson
Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson

These two teams met in Week 13 and the Seahawks throttled the 49ers, 43-16, and Wilson threw four touchdowns on just 17 pass attempts. Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Seahawks

The Seahawks make an annoying habit of listing roughly half their roster on the early injury report, but only wide receiver Doug Baldwin (hip), running back Rashaad Penny (ankle) and linebacker K.J. Wright (knee) are thought to be at serious risk of missing Sunday’s game.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The 49ers haven’t asked Richard Sherman to do anything this season that he hasn’t already mastered.

Sherman has ultimately spent 85% of his snaps as the defense’s left cornerback, meaning Baldwin (if he goes) and Tyler Lockett should run the majority of their routes against K’Waun Williams and Akhello Witherspoon — Pro Football Focus’ 57th and 113th-ranked cornerbacks, respectively, out of 113 qualified corners.

Still, every Seahawks pass-catcher carries a low ceiling considering only Josh Allen and Marcus Mariota have more games (4) than Wilson (3) with 10 to 20 pass attempts this season.

None of the Seahawks wide receivers carry a positive Projected Plus/Minus in our FantasyLabs Pro Models, but Wilson’s $6,700 price tag on DraftKings comes with a GPP-friendly 69% Leverage Rating. Hartitz

Bet to watch: Niners +3.5

It’s back to the well for a third week in a row with the 49ers.

The Niners fell victim to turnovers in their last game against the Seahawks, highlighted by a 98-yard pick-six by linebacker Bobby Wagner.

San Francisco out-gained Seattle 452 to 331 in total yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play in that game. In fact, the Niners rank fourth in the league in adjusted net yards per play at +0.6.

I expect the Niners’ front seven to get pressure against a Seahawks’ offensive line that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

San Francisco should be able to extract revenge with a rush defense that ranks top 10 in power success, second-level yards and open field yards. Collin Wilson


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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