Steelers vs. Chargers Prop Bets: Our 3 Favorite Picks
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Melvin Gordon
- You'll find our three favorite NFL prop bets for the Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers below.
- That includes picks for Melvin Gordon's receptions over/under and two more.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities for bettors.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
My Sunday night prop bets have hit at a 78.6% (11-3) win rate this season. Let’s take a look at three props offering value for the Sunday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers.
Since the start of the season, props with a grade of 8 or higher have gone 388-260-5 (59.5% win rate).
Steelers vs. Chargers Prop Bets
Chargers RB Melvin Gordon
THE PICK: Under 3.5 Receptions (-112)
Bet Quality: 10/10
This prop bet has the highest projected differential from the implied total on the Sunday Night Football slate.
Gordon played his first game of the season last week after ending his preseason holdout. With teammate Austin Ekeler currently the RB2 in PPR formats, Gordon finds himself in a less-than-ideal time share situation.
Last week, Ekeler out-targeted Gordon 16-6 while totaling 15 receptions.
With Los Angeles center Mike Pouncey placed on injured reserved with a neck injury, the Chargers’ already-struggling offensive line now has more challenges.
In Gordon’s stellar 2018 season, he averaged 4.2 receptions per game, which occurred before a holdout and Ekeler’s increased role. Look for Gordon to fall short of the four receptions needed to reach the over for this prop.
Our FantasyLabs projection of 2.7 receptions is 23% below the 3.5 line.
Steelers TE Vance McDonald
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Receptions (+120)
Bet Quality: 10/10
Look for Steelers quarterback Devlin Hodges to lean on his tight end during his first NFL start on the road. Hodges saw abbreviated action last week against Baltimore after Mason Rudolph left the game.
The Steelers will likely bring a conservative game plan that features short-to-intermediate routes for Hodges in a tough spot on Sunday Night Football.
In his four games this season, McDonald has tallied per-game averages of four targets and 3.2 receptions. He has been especially efficient in the red zone, where he ranks sixth with three receptions.
With safety Derwin James still out, the Chargers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
The Steelers will need to control the ball early and will lean on their ground game behind running back James Conner. If the Steelers fall behind, a negative game script would benefit McDonald even more.
I would bet this 10-rated prop up to +105.
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
THE PICK: Under 35.5 rushing yards (-112)
Bet Quality: 8/10
Ekeler ranks just 17th among all running backs with 293 rushing yards, despite seeing the majority of attempts during Gordon’s holdout. Last week, in Gordon’s first game, Ekeler totaled just seven rushing yards on three carries. This was against a Denver run defense that ranks only 19th in run defense DVOA.
This week, the Chargers face a tough Steelers run defense with a limited offensive line playing without center Mike Pouncey. Ekeler will likely struggle to get the volume or production to hit his prop.
Ekeler will play an integral role in the passing game, but his rushing production will continue to dwindle.
Our model projects 15% fewer rushing yards than the implied total of 36.6. The -112 juice is still very enticing for this 8-rated prop bet.