Stuckey’s Favorite Week 16 NFL Betting Picks: Ravens vs. Browns & Jaguars vs. Falcons

Stuckey highlights his favorite NFL picks for Week 16 below.

Let's run through how he's betting Ravens-Browns and Jaguars-Falcons.

Browns +10 vs. Ravens

I'll actually be at this game — I make the trip to Cleveland each year to see my Ravens. And while I'll be rooting for them to win to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed, it doesn't mean I won't bet against them.

Money first. I have no problem separating fandom from my bets.

Bottom line: This line is just too high. I make it right around Baltimore -7.5, so the +10 is too enticing to pass. And not only is this a home dog, it's a double-digit divisional dog, which is always enticing to me. Since 2003, double-digit dogs in division games are 124-96-6 (56.4%) against the spread for a juicy ROI of just under 9%.

This also fits my principle of selling high. The Ravens are at their peak in the market after blowing out another opponent last Thursday night.

And yes, there are plenty of reasons to love this particular matchup for the Ravens: The extra prep time. The better staff. Their ability to run the ball and to exploit the Browns' pass defense over the middle of the field. The fact that their corners can match up with Cleveland's wideouts and blitz more than any NFL team. And that they haven't forgotten about the blowout loss to the Browns earlier this season — one of the Ravens' only two defeats this season.

Bu this comes down to value, and the Browns have it at 10 or higher.

And don't sleep on the fact that the Browns already saw this unique Ravens offense and the speed of Lamar Jackson.

Every week, we see the shock value of the Ravens offense, which propels them to big leads that opponents can’t overcome. But we saw how much the Chargers benefited from seeing the Ravens a second time in the postseason in 2018. And while Jackson is a much better quarterback and the defense is even better than last season, that first game should serve Cleveland well.

Nick Chubb could have a big day against a Ravens defense that has weak spots up the middle against the run. And look for Kareem Hunt out of the backfield to make things happen in the passing game when Baker Mayfield has to get the ball out quick against the heavy-blitzing Ravens.

The Ravens also have to have a stinker eventually, right? If so, I hope it's this week and not in the playoffs.

As always, play numbers, not teams. Go Ravens … by 3.

Jaguars +7 at Falcons

The Jags should be able to apply consistent pressure on Matt Ryan with their two outstanding rushers in Yannick Ngakoue and Josh Allen off the edge and Calais Campbell up the middle. They rank fourth in adjusted sack rate and face a subpar Atlanta offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in most hurries, pressures, quarterback hits and sacks allowed.

Out of 35 quarterbacks who have taken at least 200 snaps this season, only four have been under pressure on at least 40% of snaps: Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold and Ryan.

A lot of that pressure comes from the right side, where tackle Kaleb McGary has struggled as a rookie. Per Pro Football Focus, of the 62 tackles with at least 500 snaps this season, McGary grades 55th.

The Jaguars also have the more reliable punter and kicker, both of whom were named alternates to the Pro Bowl. Logan Cooke leads the NFL in net punting while Josh Lambo has been almost automatic at 28-for-29, including 9-for-10 from beyond 40. Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 30th in net punting and has used four punters in addition to two field goal kickers.

That special teams edge could end up getting the Jags inside what I think is an inflated number as a result of Atlanta's upset of San Fran.

That win is the primary reason I'm fading the Falcons. This is my favorite situational spot of Week 16 as they've consistently flopped in this spot. Not only could they potentially come out flat at home — where they haven’t been great — but there's also a high-risk of being underprepared against an AFC opponent once again.

Dan Quinn is just 4-16 against the spread against AFC teams, including 14 (!) straight non-covers. Yes, he's 0-14 in his past 14 meetings against AFC opponents. And in those games, he’s gone just 3-11 straight up.

Also, if you’re into trends, Quinn has been horrible as a favorite at 17-31 ATS (35.4%). Only Mike Shanahan has been less profitable as a favorite among 120 coaches in our BetLabs database since 2003.

Stuckey is 312-251-8 (55.4%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.