Sunday NFL Predictions for Packers vs. Bucs, Lions vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Seahawks & More (Sept. 25)

Packers vs. Buccaneers, Lions vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Seahawks and two other games fit an NFL prediction trend that targets road underdogs.

Since 2018, road underdogs have gone 366-294-19 against the spread (ATS) for a 7.2% ROI. That's a total profit of about $5,000 for $100 per game bettors.

Betting every road underdog ATS this season has gone 9-7 for a return of $123 for a 7.7% ROI that's relatively consistent with the historical trend.

This is a general trend — do keep in mind that variance is a constraint in sports betting, especially relative to the stock market or otherwise.

But similar principles between investing and these betting algorithms exist in regards to long-term time horizons and sample sizes.

For Sunday, here is the full list of road underdogs, their spreads, and which sportsbook is providing the best odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET.

• Texans (+3) vs. Bears. PointsBet (-107).
• Lions (+7) vs. Vikings. BetRivers (-136, alt line).
• Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Chargers. FanDuel (-105).
• Falcons (+1) vs. Seahawks. PointsBet (+100, ML).
• Packers (+1.5) vs. Buccaneers. BetRivers (+106, ML).

For the Falcons and Packers, the number at +1 or +1.5 is too low for me to bother.

Only about 3% of NFL games since 2010 have finished with a one-point margin, according to our metrics. In return, you're giving up about 15% in value by taking the spread over the moneyline in Packers vs. Bucs.

For Falcons vs. Seahawks, you'd be giving up about 9% of value by taking the spread. All that for a roughly +3500 shot the game finishes with a one-point margin.

The first two games listed kickoff at 1 p.m. ET. The remaining three all kickoff in the late afternoon window.