Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Arbitrage Prop Bet: Will Rob Gronkowski Get More Than 4 Receptions?

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Arbitrage Prop Bet: Will Rob Gronkowski Get More Than 4 Receptions? article feature image
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87)

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • He looks ahead to Super Bowl 53 and highlights his favorite arbitrage prop bet for the big game, featuring Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

18-16-3, +9.23 Units

  • Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
  • NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
  • NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
  • NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Arbitrage Prop Bet: Will Rob Gronkowski Get More Than 4 Receptions?

  • Over 4.5: +105
  • Under 4.5: +100

Is this actually my favorite arbitrage prop for Super Bowl 53 (Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS)?

It’s the only one I’ve found as of writing, so, yes: It’s my favorite.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski projected for four receptions, so there’s value on the under. In fact, we’ve given it a bet quality of nine on a 1-10 scale, and since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of at 8-10 have a 57.9% win rate.

The Rams are fifth against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA, and Gronk has had perhaps the least impressive season of his career this year.

But in the AFC Championship game, Gronk had a six-reception performance on 11 targets, and in Week 14 he had eight receptions. In last year’s Super Bowl, he had nine receptions on 15 targets.

He’s still capable of having a peak performance, and he should be rested coming off a bye week. And even though they’ve done relatively well against tight ends this year, the Rams have allowed 131 targets to the position, trailing just the Browns and Colts.

Although we’re projecting the under, I can see Gronk hitting the over in a high-leverage situation, especially since Super Bowl 53 could legitimately be a #RetirementGame.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, you can find the book offering the under at +100. To find the over at +105, you probably won’t need to look too hard in the market. The potential payoff isn’t huge, but I’m not above trying to win a little risk-free money.

The Pick: Over 4.5 (+105), Under 4.5 (+100)

Freedman’s Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets


Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.