Super Bowl 53 Betting Odds: Rams-Patriots Opening Spread, Trends

Super Bowl 53 Betting Odds: Rams-Patriots Opening Spread, Trends article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff, Tom Brady

Betting Odds: Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots

  • Odds: Patriots -1.5
  • Over/Under: 58
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 3
  • TV: CBS

>> All odds as of Sunday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets

The Los Angeles Rams opened anywhere from 1-point favorites to a pick’em against the New England Patriots for Super Bowl 53 before early money swung the spread and pushed the Patriots to 1.5-point favorites.

The Rams are back in the title game for the fourth time in franchise history and the first time since they faced the Patriots in Super Bowl 36.

Each of the Rams’ past two appearances came down to the play of the game: Adam Vinatieri’s foot and Kevin Dyson’s hand.

This will be Tom Brady’s ninth Super Bowl appearance — four more than John Elway, who has the second-most appearances for a quarterback with five.

Action Network Super Bowl 53 Projections

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, made the following power ratings for the Super Bowl immediately after the conference championship games. For the most up-to-date projections, download The Action Network app.

  • Projected Spread: Rams -0.2
  • Projected Over/Under: 57.5

Betting Trends to Know

The Rams beat the Titans, 23-16, as 7-point favorites in Super Bowl XXXIV — the last one hosted in Atlanta — pushing the spread and making a goal-line stop to win the game.

Now it’s time to get ready for the city’s third Super Bowl, again featuring the Rams.

  • Brady took down the Chiefs in overtime to advance to his third straight Super Bowl, the fourth in the past five seasons and the ninth in his illustrious career. Brady is 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in the Super Bowl, including 2-5 as the favorite.
  • Meanwhile, Jared Goff will become the sixth quarterback younger than 25 to start a Super Bowl, with Ben Roethlisberger (2005-06) and Tom Brady (2001-02) being the last two quarterbacks to accomplish the feat. (They both won straight up.)
  • Speaking of the “Fountain of Youth,” Sean McVay turns 33 on Jan. 24, which means that if the Rams win it all, he’d become the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl by three years.
Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sean McVay
  • The Rams beat the Saints in the Superdome to advance to the Super Bowl. Since Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans in 2006, teams are 29-50-2 (36.7%) against the spread the game after defeating the Saints, losing bettors 22.7 units. Over that span, the five teams that have had at least two weeks to prepare for their next game after beating the Saints are 1-4 SU and ATS. That includes Super Bowl 41, when the Bears defeated the Saints in the NFC Championship and lost to the Colts in the Super Bowl.
  • The Patriots beat the Chargers as 4-point favorites in the Divisional Round, receiving only 47% of the betting tickets. The Patriots closed with just 46% of tickets in the conference championship and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. The last time Brady started consecutive games with less than the majority ticket count (<50%) in the same season was in Weeks 15 and 16 of the 2007 season, when New England went 16-0 SU during the regular season and ended up losing Super Bowl 42 to the Giants.
  • The Patriots knocked out the Chiefs in Kansas City while the Rams took down the Saints in the Superdome. For the second time in the past 20 years, two road teams in the conference championships will play for a Super Bowl. This last happened in 2012-13 with the Ravens and 49ers.

How the Rams Reached the Super Bowl

The Rams lost at home to Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles as 13.5-point favorites in Week 15. The Rams have won and covered the spread in four consecutive games since.

Since 2003, the seven teams that have entered the Super Bowl on at least a four-game ATS win streak are 5-2 ATS, with all seven contests ending in one-possession games.

How the Patriots Reached the Super Bowl

The Patriots reached the Super Bowl in a way they never have before: Finishing the regular season 3-5 SU and ATS on the road, making this their first season with a road record worse than .500 since 2015.

The Patriots have finished worst than .500 ATS on the road only four times in the Bill Belichick era prior to this season. This is their first Super Bowl appearance in one of those seasons.

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