Continued Cash Flow on Over/Under Drops Super Bowl 53 Total to New Low


Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bill Belichick.

Jan 29, 2019, 09:05 PM EST
  • The betting lines for Super Bowl 53 have been out for over a week now, and the over/under has continued to drop.
  • After opening at 58.5/59, the large majority of the market is down to 56.5 and some books are as low as 55.5.
  • The under is getting 10% more money than it is bets, suggesting it's getting larger bets by sharper players.

We’re halfway to Super Bowl 53, and for the first time since Week 1, bettors have had more than a week to put down their hard-earned money on the big game. There’s been no shortage of line movement, either, and I predict we’re not nearly done.

After opening at 58.5/59 last Sunday night, the total had already dropped to 57.5 by Monday morning. By Tuesday night, it was down to 57, which is where it sat until Saturday. Over the weekend, the entire market dropped it down to 56.5, with even a few 56s and 55.5s scattered in.

This latest movement drops it below the Super Bowl record of 57 which was set two years ago between the Patriots and Falcons.

When the line moved to 57 on Tuesday, the under had been receiving 53% of bets and 54% of dollars. It remains slightly trendy at 51% of bets, but is now up to 61% of dollars. I may remind you that this is what one would consider a “highly-bet” game, so a 7% increase in money is a lot of money.

Of the 15 Super Bowls we have in our Bet Labs database, three have had over/unders move at least two points from open to close. The side that the line moved towards is 1-2 thus far.

The spread has remained quiet at most books since moving to NE -2.5. There was the brief experiment of moving the line to Pats -3 at one Vegas book, but others have yet to be so inclined. In fact, a couple books have dropped down to -2.

Stay tuned over the course of the next week for the latest Super Bowl betting news and analysis.

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