NFL Super Bowl 53 Picks: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets for Patriots-Rams

Feb 02, 2019 12:25 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patriots QB Tom Brady (12), Rams QB Jared Goff (16).

  • The Action Network's NFL experts break down their favorite Super Bowl bets for Patriots-Rams.
  • We have against-the-spread and over/under picks plus a plethora of player props to choose from.

After 17 weeks of regular season games and three rounds of entertaining playoff matchups, Super Bowl 53 is finally here and this game has it all: familiar faces and teams (Tom Brady and Patriots), a coach who is so young (Sean McVay) that he played against one of the opposing players (Julian Edelman) in college and, of course, so many props to bet on that it could make your head spin.

Brady and Bill Belichick are looking to cement their dynasty with a sixth Super Bowl win against the very team they defeated to kick off this incredible run. McVay and the offensively gifted Rams are looking to win the first Super Bowl for the franchise since the 1999 season with the Greatest Show on Turf.

To help narrow down your final NFL weekend wagers, our staff has plenty of angles, including sides, totals, player props, commercial props, halftime show wagers, you name it.

And don’t forget to join our free props contest for up to a $5,000 prize (our biggest prize yet).

Our NFL staff picks are 161-154-16 (51.1%) for the 2018 season, including the postseason.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots 

  • Spread: Patriots -2.5
  • Over/Under: 
  • Time: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

Chad Millman: Rams +125

Let’s have some fun, people.

I look at it like this: If you believe in the Rams at +2.5, you are betting on such a small window for them to cover, you have to ask yourself if you believe they can actually win the game. And I do.

If that’s the case, the value when the number is that short is on the moneyline, at +125. Of course there is a caveat here if the line bumps up to +3 between now and Sunday, which is entirely probable.

Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16).

The extra half point means everything. If you are looking for that kind of security then keep your powder dry. You will have the chance to fire away sooner rather than later.

Travis Reed: Rams +3 (-125)

With all of the betting options available, this bet seems pretty vanilla and boring but it is my favorite. I am fine with paying a premium to get to the key number of three, especially with so many of the Patriots’ Super Bowls coming down to the wire. The Bet Labs model has the Rams as a one-point favorite and I am trusting the math over the history of the Patriots.

Ian Hartitz: Josh Reynolds Will Not Have a Rushing Attempt (-120)

I took this from Sean Koerner’s electrifying Super Bowl 53 Prop Bet article. In case you aren’t aware, Reynolds is the Rams’ No. 3 wide receiver who has filled in admirably for the injured Cooper Kupp (knee, IR).

Let’s quickly check out Reynolds’ rush attempts during his 10 games without Kupp in the lineup.

Week 7: 0
Week 8: 1
Week 11: 0
Week 13: 0
Week 14: 0
Week 15: 0
Week 16: 0
Week 17: 0
Divisional Round: 1
NFC Championship: 1

The Rams get their receivers more involved in the run game more than most teams, but we’re still getting -120 odds for a bet with a 70% hit rate this season. Count me in.

Justin Bailey: C.J. Anderson Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

The under on Anderson’s rushing prop hit against the Saints thanks to a negative run and him finishing with 44 yards on the ground. I’ll go back to the well again, sweating the under the whole game in hopes that Anderson doesn’t receive 16 carries again.

Instead, I’ll be buying into McVay’s coach-speak that Todd Gurley will “be a big part of this game.”

C.J. Anderson celebrates a touchdown against the Cowboys. Credit: Robert Hanashiro, USA Today Sports.

Anderson is presently projected for 41.3 rushing yards in the FantasyLabs prop tool, making this line a nice value.

Matthew Freedman: Rams Field Goals Over 1.5 (-125)

Under McVay, the Rams have attempted an NFL-high 84 field goals over the past two seasons (excluding playoffs), and kicker Greg Zuerlein has connected on an elite 91.2% of his field-goal attempts in that time (including postseason).

In his 13 games this season, Legatron has made two field goals in every game but one. He’s had at least two attempts in every contest.

I like Zuerlein so much that I’ve bet on him to win Super Bowl MVP at +12500.

For more, see my writeup on the Rams field goal prop. I’d bet over 1.5 all the way to -200.