Super Bowl 53 Betting Tip: Patriots Dominate New Opponents in Playoffs


Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff

Jan 30, 2019, 10:32 PM EST
  • Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have gone 16-1 straight up in the playoffs when facing teams they did not play in the regular season.
  • Using our Bet Labs software, we analyze if Rams bettors should be worried about this trend.

Beating Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the playoffs is already hard enough. However, teams that faced the Pats during the regular season do seem to have an advantage in the playoffs.

Since Brady became the starter in 2001, New England has a 16-1 postseason record against opponents it did not see in the regular season, but is 13-9 straight up (SU) in playoff rematches.

On Sunday, the Pats and the Los Angeles Rams will meet in Atlanta for Super Bowl 53 (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is the first time the two teams have played since Week 13 in 2016.

Given Brady’s record against new teams in the playoffs, should Rams bettors be worried?

Win-loss records can be misleading. When we compare the Patriots’ average spread, point differential and average Football Outsiders DVOA for each playoff game, there is little that separates the team in rematches and games against new opponents.

Looking at the stats above, it is fair to say the Patriots are fortunate to have a 16-1 record against new playoff opponents. As an example, one of the wins came against Atlanta in Super Bowl 51 when the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead.

Despite going 16-1 SU when facing new teams in the postseason, the Patriots are only 9-7-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games per Bet Labs.

This follows an overall pattern of New England underperforming for bettors in the playoffs. In Brady’s career as a starter, gamblers backing the Pats have gone 158-101-8 (61.0%) ATS in the regular season, but 20-18-1 (52.6%) ATS in the playoffs.

The Pats have dominated new teams in the playoffs but bettors shouldn’t put too much stock in this trend. In fact, The Action Network simulations project the Rams to win Super Bowl 53.

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