Super Bowl 53 Betting Tip: Which Team Will Force More Turnovers?

Super Bowl 53 Betting Tip: Which Team Will Force More Turnovers? article feature image

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured:Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff

  • Super Bowl 53 props provide insight into whether the New England Patriots or Los Angeles Rams will commit more turnovers on Super Sunday.
  • Using our Bet Labs software, we analyze what losing the turnover battle means for spread bettors in the Super Bowl.

In the 52 Super Bowls that have been played, a team has won the turnover battle 43 times. In the other nine games, there were either no turnovers or the teams had the same amount.

Turnovers decide games. In the 43 Super Bowls where one team had a better turnover differential, it hoisted the Lombardi Trophy 37 times (86.0%).

The team that won the turnover battle on Super Sunday also covered the spread, going 32-10-1 (76.2%) against the spread (ATS).

If you are having a hard time deciding between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53 (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS), pick the one you think will win the turnover battle.

Of course, that is easier said than done. But the betting market can point us in the right direction.

Team to commit more turnovers

  • Patriots +0.5
  • Rams -0.5

There is a prop bet for everything in the Super Bowl and turnovers are no exception. According to the oddsmakers, the Rams are favored to commit more turnovers on Sunday. Los Angeles is also a -130 favorite to give the ball away first.

In the regular season, the Patriots offense finished with a lower turnover rate, ranking sixth in the NFL, while the Rams were ninth. Jared Goff (12) also threw more interceptions than Tom Brady (11).

The season long data and betting markets suggest LA will give the ball away more often in the championship game.

The good news for Rams fans and bettors? In the Super Bowls that Brady and Bill Belichick won or tied in the turnover category, the Patriots are only 3-2 straight up and 1-4 ATS.