Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Coach’s Challenge Prop Bet: Will the First Challenge Be Successful?

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Coach’s Challenge Prop Bet: Will the First Challenge Be Successful? article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sean McVay

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • He looks ahead to Super Bowl 53 and highlights his favorite coach's challenge prop for the big game, regarding the outcome of the first challenge.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

18-16-3, +9.23 Units

  • Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
  • NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
  • NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
  • NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Coach’s Challenge Prop Bet: Will the First Challenge Be Successful?

  • Successful: -125
  • Unsuccessful: +105

UPDATE (Feb. 3, 5:45 p.m. ET): I’ve found another challenge prop that offers value. Total challenge flags thrown during regulation: Over 1.5 (+100), under 1.5 (-140). I’m officially making it a pick to hammer the under. Not counting the postseason (that data wasn’t readily available), Belichick has 0.385 challenges per game with the Pats. McVay has 0.438. Together that 0.823 challenges on average. I’d bet the under to -180 at least.

Most of my recent prop pieces have been for Super Bowl 53 (Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

For more insight on Super Bowl props, use the FantasyLabs Props Tool to help you find the sportsbooks that offer the most value on player props. In the tool, we grade each prop on a 1-10 scale. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of at least eight have a 57.9% win rate.

Of all the Super Bowl props I’ve highlighted so far, this one on the coach’s challenge is a favorite because it’s so straightforward.

I haven’t combed through postseason data, but for his career Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has won 48 of 117 challenges during the regular season. That’s a 41.0% success rate.

As for Rams head coach Sean McVay, he’s won six of 14 challenges across his two seasons. That’s a 42.9% success rate.

If there’s no coach’s challenge, the bet will be graded as no action. But if there’s a challenge, Belichick and McVay’s records suggest that it is likelier than not to be unsuccessful.

The edge on this prop isn’t massive, but it’s definitely there at plus odds.

I’d bet “Unsuccessful” down to +100.

The Pick: Unsuccessful (+105)
Additional Pick: Under 1.5 (-140)

 


Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

How would you rate this article?