Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Historical Matchup Bets: Tom Brady, Todd Gurley & Marshall Faulk
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady, Marshall Faulk
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- He looks to Super Bowl 53 and highlights his favorite historical matchups for the big game, featuring Patriots quarterback Tom Brady plus Rams running backs Todd Gurley and Marshall Faulk.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
18-17-3, +8.23 Units
- Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
- NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
- NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
- NHL: 5-3-2, +2.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Two Favorite Super Bowl 53 Historical Matchups: Tom Brady, Todd Gurley & Marshall Faulk
In 2002, the Patriots kicked off their dynasty with a 20-17 win over the Rams in Super Bowl 36.
Now, the two franchises rematch in Super Bowl 53 (Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Hearkening back to Super Bowl 36, one sportsbook has posted historical head-to-head matchups between current players (for instance, Rams wide receiver Brandin Cooks) and their past counterparts (Rams wide receiver Isaac Bruce).
I discussed my two favorite historical matchup bets on the Super Bowl 53 Propapalooza podcast with Sean Koerner. Give the episode a listen.
Below are the two historical matchups I like the most.
Super Bowl 36 Tom Brady (+174.5 yards) vs. Super Bowl 53 Tom Brady
- Super Bowl 36 Brady (+174.5 yards) : -120
- Super Bowl 53 Brady: -110
Tom Brady passed for 145 yards in Super Bowl 36, so this is basically an imaginative way of creating a passing yardage over/under of 319.5 for him in Super Bowl 53.
Our FantasyLabs Props Tool project Brady for 292 yards, so there’s massive value here.
Here are the yardage props I’m seeing across the industry at various books as of writing:
- 314.5 yards: Over -115, Under -115
- 301.5 yards: Over -118, Under -110
- 300.5 yards: Over -110, Under +110
- 295.5 yards: Over -120, Under -110
If you want, there’s the opportunity to middle Brady’s prop, but I’m content with hammering under 319.5.
And that means I like Super Bowl 36 Brady, whom I’d bet to -150.
The Pick: Super Bowl 36 Brady +174.5 yards (-120)
Super Bowl 36 Marshall Faulk (+5.5 yards) vs. Super Bowl 53 Todd Gurley
- Super Bowl 36 Faulk (+5.5 yards) : -140
- Super Bowl 53 Gurley: +110
Faulk rushed for 76 yards in Super Bowl 36, so this is basically an over/under mark of 81.5 rushing yards for Gurley.
Oh, baby. This line looks exploitable.
Here are some of the yardage props for Gurley at various books:
- 70.5 yards: Over -110, Under -120
- 67.5 yards: Over +105, Under -135
- 67.5 yards: Over -114, Under -114
- 65.5 yards: Over -110, Under -120
If you’re looking to middle Gurley’s yardage prop, you can certainly do that — but I’m good with taking under 81.5 by betting Faulk +5.5 yards.
With Faulk, you’re clearly getting the best line available on the market, and our props tool projects Gurley for 64.9 rushing yards.
Massive advantage: Faulk. I’d bet on him to -180.
The Pick: Super Bowl 36 Faulk +5.5 yards (-140)
Freedman’s Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets
For more insight on Super Bowl props, use our FantasyLabs Props Tool to help you find the sportsbooks that offer the most value on player props. In the tool, we grade each prop on a 1-10 scale. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of at least eight have a 57.9% win rate.
Here are the Super Bowl 53 props I’ve written about so far.
- Budweiser Clydesdales
- Rams Field Goals
- Player Props to Middle
- Romo/Nantz to Mention the Spread
- Trump to Attend the Game
- Success of First Coach’s Challenge
- Rob Gronkowski Receptions (Arbitrage)
- Greg Zuerlein MVP
- C.J. Anderson Touchdowns
- Rams-Patriots Total Penalties