Updated Super Bowl 53 MVP Odds: Edelman, Michel on the Move
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman and Sony Michel.
- Super Bowl 53 MVP odds have changed significantly since opening.
- Todd Gurley (+1000) and Sony Michel (+1200) have both seen a lot of action, with Julian Edelman (+2000) seeing a similar jump.
- With many longshots improving, Tom Brady (+125) and Jared Goff (+250) have seen their odds drop the most.
One week down, one week to go. We’re halfway to Super Bowl 53 and the MVP odds market has seen plenty of action already. In a shocking development, Tom Brady, known as the GOAT in many circles, has seen his odds drop!
He’s the Super Bowl MVP king, what are people thinking?
Though bettors haven’t been biting on Brady’s short odds, there’s been a great deal of movement for many of the players with shorter than 100-1 odds.
Here’s how they’ve changed so far:
Todd Gurley: +1600 to +1000 (+3.5% Implied Probability)
Despite being a non-factor against the Saints, the Rams’ star running back has received enough action to move from 16-1 to 10-1. Some are concerned about his health, but the Rams claim he is fine.
There have been seven Super Bowl MVP running backs, but none since Super Bowl 32 when Terrell Davis took home the hardware. Given his abilities in the running and passing game, Gurley still had value in the eyes of bettors at 16-1 despite the recent running back drought.
Julian Edelman: +4000 to +2000 (+2.4% IP)
There’s a prop bet regarding whether or not the word “Romostradamus” will be said during the Super Bowl broadcast. Perhaps they should add one about “Markstradamus” because here’s a quote from last week:
“If, like Tony Romo, I could see the future, I would say that Edelman’s odds are likely to move. At 40-1, I imagine a lot of folks will take a shot at him.”
Bingo! His odds have been halved over the past week.
He had 13 targets against the Chargers and 10 against the Chiefs, including a couple of huge third-down conversions. With Rob Gronkowski less of a presence in the passing game than he’s been in previous seasons, Edelman has cemented himself as Brady’s go-to guy.
Edelman would be the first wide receiver to win Super Bowl MVP since Santonio Holmes in Super Bowl 43 and fourth this century.
Sony Michel: +1800 to +1200 (+2.4% IP)
When odds opened, Michel had slightly better odds at +1800 than James White at +2000. That gap has widened.
White is still at +2000 with the third Pats running back, Rex Burkhead, remaining at his opening odds of +6600. Michel is all the way down to +1200, which surprises me.
Given the unpredictability of New England’s backfield workload, it’s tough to say who’s going to get the most touches and most opportunities at the goal line.
Michel is coming off back-to-back 24+ carry, 100+ yard, multi-touchdown games. It’s the first time all season he’s achieved any of those statistics in two straight games. Strike while the iron’s hot, I suppose.
Tom Brady: +100 to +125 (-5.6% IP)
With those three players and many other names seeing an improvement on the odds list, it’s understandable that Brady had to take a hit.
If someone had bet on Brady to win Super Bowl MVP in every Super Bowl he’s attended, they’d be 4-4, which is perhaps the reason why his odds opened at exactly +100.
Given the juicier options down the list with much greater payouts, sportsbooks’ liabilities are likely way higher on other players than they are on Brady.
Jared Goff: +205 to +250 (-4.2% IP)
With the Rams’ moneyline odds around +120, Jared Goff wasn’t enticing many bettors at his opening price of +205.
Though he’s made it to the Super Bowl, Goff’s passer rating was 83 against the Saints and 74.4 against the Cowboys.
Since the start of December, he’s thrown seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Jared Goff with Cooper Kupp this season (8 games):
69.6% completion rate
330 yards per game
9.7 yards per attempt
6.2% TD rate
Without Kupp (9 games):
249 yards per game
4.7% TD rate
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 15, 2019
It’s possible that the Patriots go all out to stop the run game, which would put Goff in a great situation to either win the game and MVP or do poorly and lose both.
Combined, the two quarterbacks’ implied odds went from 82.8% last week to 73% this week.
Robert Woods: +4000 to +5000 (-0.4% IP)
Robert Woods is one of just a handful of players other than Brady and Goff whose odds have gotten worse.
Perhaps one reason why bettors should take a shot on Woods is his matchup. Per Ian Hartitz, “Woods is positioned for the most success against a Patriots defense that yielded the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers during the regular season.”
If the Pats play it safe and limit huge plays from Brandin Cooks by doubling him, Woods could chew up a lot of yards over the middle.