Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 MVP Bet: Rams Kicker Greg Zuerlein to Win

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 MVP Bet: Rams Kicker Greg Zuerlein to Win article feature image

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • He looks to Super Bowl 53 and highlights his favorite MVP bet for the big game, featuring Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

18-17-3, +8.23 Units

  • Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
  • NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
  • NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
  • NHL: 5-3-2, +2.80 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 MVP Bet: Rams Kicker Greg Zuerlein to Win

  • Zuerlein Wins MVP: +12500

I discussed this MVP bet on the Super Bowl 53 Propapalooza pod with Sean Koerner. Give the episode a listen.

Here’s my basic thesis for investing in Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein to win the MVP award for the Super Bowl (Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

He’s been the best kicker in the NFL over the past two years, connecting on an elite 91.2% of his field goal attempts (including playoffs). And under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have attempted an NFL-high 84 field goals since last year (excluding playoffs).

Because Legatron is strong from long distance — he kicked a clutch 48-yarder to send the NFC Conference Championship to overtime and a 57-yarder to win the game — McVay is fine taking the “sure points” when other coaches might try to convert on fourth down.

Zuerlein, in my opinion, was the MVP of the NFC Conference Championship, kicking four field goals in a relatively low-scoring game in which no single skill-position player stood out.

I could see a similar type of game this week.

The Rams are +2.5 underdogs, but they could easily win this game. According to The Action Network NFL Power Ratings, the Rams are the superior team. In fact, our simulations have the Rams winning by 1.1 points.

If the Rams win, the Super Bowl MVP will almost certainly not be on the Patriots.

The team’s rushing production could be split between running backs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, rendering both of them unlikely MVPs.

And if Zuerlein has several field goals — he’s had at least four in seven of 27 games with McVay (25.9%) — then the Rams could win a low-scoring game even if quarterback Jared Goff and the Los Angeles wide receivers fail to impress.

In such a scenario, Greg the Leg would have a real chance to win the MVP award, especially if at least two of his kicks are long or converted in high-leverage situations. And, again, that’s not improbable considering McVay’s willingness to let his kicker attempt field goals and Zuerlein’s high conversion rate.

No kicker has ever been the Super Bowl MVP before, but Zuerlein is not the average kicker. Last year he was a first-team All-Pro on pace for the greatest kicking campaign of all time when an injury cut short his season.

I give him a greater than 1% chance to win the award, so I love him at +12500. I’d bet on him all the way to +10000.

The Pick: Zuerlein to win Super Bowl MVP (+12500)

Freedman’s Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets

For more insight on Super Bowl props, use the FantasyLabs Props Tool to help you find the sportsbooks that offer the most value on player props. In the tool, we grade each prop on a 1-10 scale. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of at least eight have a 57.9% win rate.

Here are the Super Bowl 53 props I’ve written about so far.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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