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Super Bowl 53 Odds Heading Into Conference Championship Games

Jan 14, 2019 8:26 PM EST
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Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15).

  • After easily beating the trendy Colts, the Kansas City Chiefs (+275) saw the biggest improvement in implied probability over the past week.
  • The Saints (+175) are still favored, though, despite nearly falling to the Eagles while the Patriots and Rams are both +350 and open as 3-point dogs.

After a crazy Wild Card Weekend that featured all four underdogs covering, the Divisional Round was one for chalk. The Eagles did scare the Saints (and cover), but the other three home teams won and covered without much of a sweat.

It’s been a pretty dramatic postseason, and now both conference’s respective top two seeds will face off against one another in the AFC and NFC Championships.

This will be the final Super Bowl 53 odds update of the season, as we’ll of course be down to two teams a week from now. Here’s the latest odds, as well as where each team was every week of the season.

Note: All odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of 8:15 p.m. ET on Sunday. Click on the date to sort.

Risers

Kansas City Chiefs: +400 to +275 (+6.7% Implied Probability)

Many folks thought the Chiefs were in trouble against the surging Colts heading into this past Saturday’s game, but Kansas City shut Indy down with ease in the snow at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs have to play the storied Patriots for the second time this season, but will at least have home-field advantage this go around. Even though the Pats look great, the Chiefs’ Divisional Round performance has helped them see the biggest improvement in implied odds over the past week.

The Chiefs lost to the Patriots in Foxborough, 43-40, in mid-October. Kansas City opened as 3-point home favorites in their rematch, but we all know what New England is capable of.

New Orleans Saints: +225 to +175 (+5.6% IP)

The Saints’ win over the Eagles wasn’t exactly comfortable, but New Orleans got through and that’s all that matters. Despite winning in hairy fashion, the Saints’ odds improved more than the Rams’ and Patriots’ did.

The Saints will host the Rams next week for the second time this season. The Rams actually closed at -2.5 last time, but they were undefeated at the time. Los Angeles lost, 45-35, and New Orleans has been the Super Bowl favorite in all but one week since.

New England Patriots: +450 to +350 (+4.0% IP)

Don’t doubt Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Many folks were, as the Chargers were a trendy pick throughout the past week both on the spread and moneyline. Many TV experts and analysts were on the Chargers, too, but the Patriots came out HOT and trounced them in what was never really a contest.

The Patriots haven’t won an AFC Championship Game on the road since the first portion of their dynasty. Brady and Belichick reached their third Super Bowl by defeating the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but have since lost three straight — all to Peyton Manning.


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Los Angeles Rams: +450 to +350 (+4.0% IP)

The C.J. Anderson-driven Rams squad is not to be messed with!

After a couple of losses in a row in mid-December, the Rams have rattled off three straight 30-plus point victorious efforts. Of course, Rams need to improve on the game-plan they had when they visited New Orleans in November.

Fallers

The Faithful Departed

The Cowboys took home the NFC East, but were never truly considered contenders. The +1400 odds before their loss to the Rams were the highest they had been all season. The Cowboys were even available at 100-1 for a handful of weeks during the regular season.

The Colts were also longshots for much of the season, but I suppose that’s for good reason. They reached 200-1 after their 1-5 start, and like the Cowboys, plateaued at +1400 before losing to the Chiefs.

The Chargers were always in a tough spot given their standing in the AFC West.  However, their odds were pretty darn good for a wild-card team. They had marched all the way to +700, but dropped way back to +1800 after losing to the Ravens in Week 16. They had been as low as +3000 in early October.

The Eagles went downhill in the early going, dropping from +1200 after Week 1 to +4000 in mid-October and +20000 in early December. Though Nick Foles’ magic was able to land them a playoff spot and a playoff win, their season came to an end against the mighty Saints. They did, however, score one more green dot for those who took them on the spread.

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