Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley II.
- The Saints fell from +175 to +300 following their loss to the Cowboys, allowing the Rams (+250) to retake the top spot as Super Bowl 53 favorites.
- There were also major changes among AFC contenders, as the Chargers (+1000) took over the third spot in the conference following their win over Pittsburgh (+1200).
- The Patriots (+500) have their best odds since early September, due to a realistic chance at home-field advantage if the Chiefs falter down the stretch.
After a week with few changes, the Super Bowl 53 odds market has seen major adjustments following Sunday’s NFL Week 13 games.
Starting with the Cowboys’ upset of the Saints on Thursday Night Football, Week 13 turned into a crazy one.
Mike McCarthy — good luck with the Browns next year. To the NFL official who didn’t call that false start in the Chargers-Steelers game — I hope you have an emergency fund set aside.
One month of regular-season play remains and each week should spit out some big swings on the odds list.
Three NFC showdowns in Week 14 with big playoff implications will certainly impact the odds, so be sure to factor those in if you’re deciding to bet Super Bowl 53 futures.
All odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Dec. 3 at 9 a.m. ET. Click on the date to sort.
Los Angeles Rams: +350 to +250 (+6.4% Implied Probability)
Following the Saints’ loss, all the Rams needed to do was beat the Lions as 10-point favorites, and they did just that.
Now, the Rams control their own destiny, as winning out would assure them home-field advantage and force the Saints to come to LA for a potential NFC Championship game.
Though their win over Detroit wasn’t overly impressive, it’d be impossible not to make LA the favorite again.
Its biggest test during the remainder of the season will be Sunday’s game in Chicago, and that’s saying something considering the Rams may luck out and get Chase Daniel.
Los Angeles Chargers: +2000 to +1000 (+4.3% IP)
It was a big week for Los Angeles football fans .. are there any of those?
The Rams’ win was sort of ho-hum, but the Chargers’ win was impressive AF, as the kids would say. A prime-time comeback for the ages, with a little help from the refs.
With Joey Bosa back, the Chargers are among the more complete teams in the league. When they get Melvin Gordon back, they’ll be even better.
A huge game in terms of playoff seeding and Super Bowl 53 odds changes will come in Week 15 when they visit the Chiefs.
New England Patriots: +700 to +500 (+4.2% IP)
The Pats have quietly been Pats-ing and sit with a 9-3 record through 12 games despite their ugly start.
They have three very winnable games remaining against AFC East comrades and a game in Pittsburgh in two weeks that could hold the key to home-field advantage.
If the Pats can win out and the Chiefs lose one game, the road to Super Bowl 53 will once again go through Foxborough, as is seemingly always the case.
New England is also quite healthy (for now) and Tom Brady has a whole slew of weapons surrounding him, including James Develin, Week 13 goal-line vulture extraordinaire.
Nothing like a scavenger with a neck roll, if you ask me.
New Orleans Saints: +175 to +300 (-11.4% IP)
The steamrolling Saints offense marched to 10 points against the Cowboys … not great!
I said last week that the Saints’ tougher schedule could result in LA entering the playoffs as the Super Bowl favorite, but I wasn’t exactly expecting New Orleans to lose to the Cowboys.
Another loss certainly isn’t out of the question, but the Saints’ games against Carolina aren’t looking as tough as they did a few weeks ago. You know … because the Panthers apparently suck now.
The one positive takeaway vs. Dallas? The Saints’ defense looked darn good. So they got that going for them.
Pittsburgh Steelers: +700 to +1200 (-4.8% IP)
Sure, the Steelers got a raw deal from the refs last night, but Super Bowl 53 odds don’t give a damn. Pittsburgh is suddenly in jeopardy of not even winning its division, holding just a 0.5-game lead over Baltimore.
With home-field advantage now looking very unlikely for Pittsburgh, the team’s road to Super Bowl 53 is even tougher. At least it figured out that the never-ending offsides strategy to end a game does not work.
Kansas City Chiefs: +350 to +400 (-2.2% IP)
I’m surprised to see the Chiefs fall back a bit, but as I said before, there’s a very realistic scenario that could see the Chiefs not getting home-field advantage.
With games against the Chargers at home and at the Seahawks remaining, there’s even a chance the Chiefs don’t win their division.
Perhaps also factoring into the equation is the Kareem Hunt situation. Though running backs don’t matter all that much to the spread, I think we can all agree that, on the field, the Chiefs are better with Hunt than without him.
Luckily, they still have a smorgasbord of offensive talent for Patrick Mahomes to utilize.