Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees
- The New Orleans Saints Super Bowl odds shifted from +175 to +360 following a Week 13 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
- This an overreaction as The Action Network NFL simulations have the Saints as the most likely Super Bowl champions.
- There is value betting New Orleans following the line movement.
The New Orleans Saints offense laid an egg last week on Thursday Night Football. Drew Brees and Co. had averaged 44 points in their previous four games but managed only 176 yards in a 13-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Before the stunning loss to the Cowboys, the Saints were +175 favorites to win the Super Bowl. New Orleans’ championship odds sunk to +360 following its disappointing performance in Week 13.
The team’s implied probability of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy decreased from 36.4% to 21.7%.
This is an overreaction to one bad game. A three-point loss to a division-leading playoff team is reasonable, even for a top-tier squad. If you liked the Saints before, now is a great time to bet New Orleans to win the Super Bowl.
Not only is the line better, but this is still the same team that made it one of the favorites in the first place. Despite the clunker in Dallas, New Orleans is averaging 34.9 points per game, tied for second in the NFL.
The offense is scoring points on 58.1% of its drives, which would be the highest rate in the NFL since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978.
Drew Brees continues to play like a Hall of Famer despite his advanced age (39). He is on pace to set records for passer rating (123.2) and completion percentage (75.5).
Brees has thrown 30 touchdowns and just three interceptions — the team’s 10 giveaways are tied for the second-fewest in the league.
It’s not just about the offense either. The defense has bounced back after a horrid start to the season in which it allowed 48 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Since that Week 1 loss, the Saints rank 10th in the NFL in yards allowed per game (338.8), seventh in points allowed per game (20.09) and ninth in weighted defensive DVOA.
The betting market made an adjustment based on one loss, but The Action Network’s NFL simulations still have the Saints as the most likely Super Bowl champions.
There is a 25.7% chance New Orleans will host a Super Bowl parade. The implied probability based on +360 odds is 21.7%, thus there is value betting it at +360 odds.
New Orleans is the only team offering bettors value to win the Super Bowl based on the current NFL simulation and betting odds offered.
Below is each team’s chance to win the Super Bowl: