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Super Bowl 53 Odds Update: Saints Favorites Again After Another Week of Big Changes

Dec 11, 2018 9:24 AM EST
Credit:

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41), wide receiver Michael Thomas (13), running back Mark Ingram (22)

  • The Saints (+175) and Rams (+350) flipped places on the Super Bowl odds list for a second consecutive week as New Orleans has regained the #1 NFC playoff seed.
  • The Chargers (+800) continue to rise, but could fall big time with a loss to the Chiefs (+450) this week, which would rule out an AFC West title.
  • The Bears (+1600) improved their odds, but are still not among the top tier of contenders in the eyes of the oddsmakers.

Last week, I was saying how Week 13 was a wild one. It was. Week 14 was also wild and essentially reversed many of the big changes on the Super Bowl odds leaderboard.

With so many top contenders losing at least one game over the past two weeks, things have been shuffling around like a Boz Scaggs hit single. With just three weeks remaining, things will continue to shuffle at a pretty ferocious pace as the playoff field becomes more clear-cut.

All odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Dec. 3 at 9 a.m. ET. Click on the date to sort.

Risers

New Orleans Saints: +300 to +175 (+11.4% Implied Probability)

The Saints’ win wasn’t exactly a pretty one, but they can thank the Bears for a big jump on the odds leaderboard. With the Rams losing, New Orleans is now back on top of the NFC playoff standings with just three games left.

The Saints certainly have a tougher remaining schedule than the Rams, but winning out is entirely possible for both squads.

Luckily for New Orleans, their two games vs. the Panthers look like they will be much easier than they thought a couple months ago. Carolina has lost five straight and may not be giving it “their all” vs. the Saints.

Los Angeles Chargers: +1000 to +800 (+2.0% IP)

Well, the Chargers almost lost to Jeff Driskel, but they’re still holding on to hopes of an AFC West title. We should see a pretty big swing for the Chargers regardless of the outcome of their game vs. the Chiefs, as a win makes a division title and bye week a real possibility, while a loss guarantees a wild card spot.

Chicago Bears: +2000 to +1600 (+1.1% IP)

I was a bit surprised the Bears aren’t closer to 10-1 following their impressive performance vs. the Rams. The offense wasn’t impressive, but gosh darn the defense was.

If they make it to the NFC Championship game, they’d likely have to face the Saints or Rams on the road. They proved they can shut down a top offense in “Bear weather” at home, but shutting down one of these elite offenses again on the road in the playoffs will be undoubtedly much tougher.

Chicago has a couple of tough divisional tests remaining vs. the McCarthy-less Packers and at Minnesota so we shall see if they can string together a few more wins to end the season. They’ve been a bit Jekyll-Hyde-y this year so there’s no telling what they’ll do.


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Fallers

Los Angeles Rams: +250 to +350 (-6.4% IP)

I was kind of sticking up for Jared Goff in one of my MVP odds updates a couple weeks back…yikes!

None of the Rams’ stars played well. Goff with the four picks, Todd Gurley with just 58 total yards on 14 touches, Aaron Donald with no sacks. Just an all around suck-fest.

L.A. is back to where they were two weeks ago at +350 and behind the Saints in the standings. They host the Eagles this week and then have what should be two lay-ups vs. the Cardinals and 49ers to end their season.

They should win them all, but will need some help from the Saints if they want home-field advantage.

New England Patriots: +500 to +700 (-4.2% IP)

The Miracle in Miami. That would only happen in Miami, too — Tom Brady’s kryptonite.

A win would have been huge for the AFC playoff standings, but now there’s a great shot that the AFC title game doesn’t go through Foxborough for just the third time since 2011. And yes, I am kind of just going to assume that the Patriots will be in the game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: +1200 to +2000 (-2.9% IP)

Big Ben came back a little too late vs. the Raiders, as Joshua Dobbs’ point-less stretch of drives in the second half allowed Oakland to stick around and eek out the win.

The Steelers are certainly happy that Kansas City held off the Ravens. If they didn’t, Pittsburgh would be the No. 6 seed and have just a half-game up on three teams vying for playoff berths.

This was really a must-win game regardless of what Baltimore did vs. Kansas City, though, as the Steelers now play the Pats and Saints back-to-back. If they fail to win one of those, they’ll be 7-7-1 with just one game left.

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