Super Bowl 53 Betting Market: Sharp, Public Bettors Pounding Patriots

Super Bowl 53 Betting Market: Sharp, Public Bettors Pounding Patriots article feature image
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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman.

  • Odds for Super Bowl 53 (Feb. 3 at 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS) have been out for 36 hours, and the Patriots remain a very popular choice.
  • New England is receiving more than 80% of spread bets and commanding 90% of money wagered, forcing sportsbooks to move the line to Patriots -2.5.
  • The over/under, which remains the highest in Super Bowl history, has dropped from 58.5 to 57.5 since opening.

Well, odds for Super Bowl 53 have been out for about 36 hours now and the Patriots remain wildly popular. I’m talking Pokemon in 1999, Angry Birds in 2010 and cryptocurrency in December 2017.

Will this fad fizzle out or will the bets on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick keep piling up?

Here’s all of the early data we’ve gathered for Super Bowl 53:

Super Bowl 53 Spread: Patriots -2.5

This line opened at a pick’em, and let me tell you … everyone picked the Patriots. (Rimshot sound effect.)

Within an hour after the line opened, I wrote about the initial hammering of the Patriots by both sharps and squares. Ten minutes after opening, the Pats were getting 83% of spread bets and 94% of dollars, a totally unsustainable level of support, right?

But as of Tuesday morning, New England is at 84% of bets and 90% of dollars wagered on the spread.

That initial wave of support on Sunday night caused the line to move from a pick’em to NE -2.5, but that was met by buyback, as the Pats fell to -1 about 10 minutes later.

Since then, the line has steadily returned to -2.5 with no buyback. It’s possible sharp bettors are waiting until the Rams hit +3 to take them, but there’s no guarantee this game reaches that key number.

Of the seven Patriots Super Bowls available via our Bet Labs software, the highest percentage of spread bets they’ve received is 64% against the Seahawks. The lowest amount was 40% back when their perfect season became not-so-perfect against the Giants.

Super Bowl 53 Moneyline: Patriots -140, Rams +120

These vary by about 10 cents of juice depending on your book, but like the spread, we’ve seen the line head toward New England.

Moneyline bets certainly aren’t as popular in football which is primarily a spread sport, but there will surely be plenty on this game. With 72% of moneyline tickets and 92% of the dollars, sportsbooks could be in for a double whammy if the Pats win and cover.

Super Bowl 53 Over/Under: 57.5

Though it’s still the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, this line has been falling. It’s actually in jeopardy of not being the highest in history, with the Patriots-Falcons line of 57 just one-half point away.

The under was also a trendy choice in terms of bets and dollars in the early going. About 55% of bets and two-thirds of the cash that came in during the first 12 hours took the under, which resulted in a one-point drop from 58.5 to 57.5.

Since then, the activity on the total has quieted down, as there’s been no line movement since Monday morning. Unlike the spread, the betting percentages are beginning to even out, with the under now at 53% of bets and 52% of dollars.

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