Freedman’s Five Official Super Bowl 53 Props to Middle: Target the Rams Passing Game
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff.
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- He looks ahead to Super Bowl 53 and highlights the five official player props he plans to middle.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
18-15-3, +10.23 Units
- Golf: 2-2-1, +0.30 Units
- NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
- NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
- NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Five Official Super Bowl 53 Props to Middle
Earlier this week, I highlighted the 10 Super Bowl 53 player props I was thinking about middling.
If you’re not familiar, a middle is when you wager on both sides of the same bet at different prices. So if a quarterback has a passing yardage prop of 300 at one book and 270 at another, I could bet under 300 and over 270 in the hope of winning both bets with a yardage total in the middle. At worst, I’ll win one bet and lose the juice on the other.
Now that we have projections in the FantasyLabs Props Tool, here are the five player props I’m officially attempting to middle. I’m betting both sides of these primarily for fun, but I like them enough to include them in my overall record.
Rams Quarterback Jared Goff: Passing Yards
- Passing yards: Under 290.5 (-115), Over 278.5 (-114)
- Our projection: 287
Goff could finish with 279-plus yards if the Rams play from behind, but he could also finish with no more than 290, because his production has dipped outside of Los Angeles, and the Patriots are second with their 92.7 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
Patriots Running Back Sony Michel: Rushing Yards
- Rushing yards: Under 79.5 (-114), Over 72.5 (-120)
- Our projection: 77.4
We’re projecting Michel for 18.2 carries, but the Rams have been stout against the run in the playoffs, thanks primarily to the play of defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Ndamokung Suh, so we’re not expecting him to be efficient with his rushes.
Rams Wide Receiver Robert Woods: Receiving Yards
- Receiving yards: Under 80.5 (-115), Over 69.5 (-114)
- Our projection: 71.8
I really like this middle. Woods typically operates in the 70-80 yardage range. In 18 games this year, he’s finished with 70-80 yards five times. His median for the year is 73 yards; his mean, 73.4.
Rams Wide Receiver Brandin Cooks: Receiving Yards
- Receiving yards: Under 77.5 (-115), Over 70.5 (-114)
- Our projection: 70.6
Just once this year has Cooks finished a game with a total of 66-86 yards: His boom/bust volatility makes him unlikely to hit this middle. But this is a #RevengeGame for Cooks, and I expect him to get his opportunities. If the Pats defense limits the big play, Cooks could end up with a mediocre yardage total on above-average volume.
Rams Wide Receiver Josh Reynolds: Receiving Yards
- Receiving yards: Under 50.5 (-114), Over 37.5 (-125)
- Our projection: 45.5
I already committed to this prop in the previous piece, but I might as well include it here with the other official middles.
In his eight games since slot receiver Cooper Kupp (knee) went on injured reserve, Reynolds has averaged 49.6 yards and finished in the 38-50 range twice.