Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Presidential Prop Bet: Will Donald Trump Attend the Game?

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Presidential Prop Bet: Will Donald Trump Attend the Game? article feature image

Photo credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Donald Trump

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • He looks ahead to Super Bowl 53 and highlights his favorite presidential prop for the big game, regarding whether Donald Trump will attend the game.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

18-16-3, +9.23 Units

  • Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
  • NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
  • NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
  • NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Presidential Prop Bet: Will Donald Trump Attend the Game? 

  • Yes: +375
  • No: -650

Super Bowl 53 (Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS) is still over a week away, but I can’t resist jumping on the props for the big game.

I like a lot of the random non-player props, but I never invest much in them because very rarely do they offer an edge. But this prop is an exception. It looks very investable.

President Donald Trump is known to be friendly with several people in the Patriots organization, and when the Pats won the AFC Championship game, he congratulated them on Twitter.

Congratulations to Bob Kraft, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the entire New England Patriots team on a great game and season. Will be a fantastic Super Bowl!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 21, 2019

But this doesn’t mean he’s going to the Super Bowl.

This game will mark the third consecutive Super Bowl appearance for the Pats, and Trump didn’t attend Super Bowls 51-52. There’s little reason to expect he’ll be at this one.

As far as I can find, no sitting president has ever attended the Super Bowl. Trump is unconventional, so the past isn’t necessarily a strong precedent for anything he might do. But it’s notable that no president has ever attended the event.

Based on some conversations I’ve had with someone who used to work in the secret service (and I’m actually not joking), here’s why I think no president has attended the game: The security logistics.

To put the president in the middle of thousands of other people takes a lot of planning and enhanced security measures that would ultimately make getting into the event more onerous to everyone else in attendance.

On top of that, the recent government shutdown complicates matters. It would have been harder than usual for security plans to have been made during the shutdown.

And Trump might want to avoid the optics of attending the Super Bowl in Atlanta while a long-term budget still needs to be negotiated in Washington, D.C.

It’s worth noting that Vice President Mike Pence attended Super Bowl 51 in Houston shortly after he and Trump were sworn into office. He was famously booed. In Texas. One of the most Republican-leaning states in the country.

I can see Trump wanting to avoid a situation in which thousands of people have the opportunity to voice their displeasure directly to him on live television.

What are the odds that Trump won’t attend the Super Bowl? I’d say 90% at least. Probably more like 95%. Maybe even 98%.

I usually don’t like paying a lot of juice, but you got to take the bets with positive expected value when you can get them.

I’d bet on “No” all the way to -1000.

The Pick: No (-650)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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