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Updated Super Bowl 53 Projections & Chances for Saints, Chiefs, Patriots, Rams

Jan 14, 2019 12:00 PM EST

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).

  • The New Orleans Saints advanced to the NFC Championship Game, giving their Super Bowl probability a massive boost.
  • The Saints (31.9%) have the best chance to win Super Bowl 53, according to our simulations, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (27.8%), Los Angeles Rams (20.9%) and New England Patriots (19.4%).
  • Below, we'll use our simulations to analyze the chances for every NFL playoff team to advance to Super Bowl 53.

OurAFC and NFC Championship matchups are officially set!

We are inching closer to Super Bowl 53, and the picture is starting to become more clear.

Below, we’ll use our Bet Labs simulations to highlight each team’s chances of making the Super Bowl.

The teams are ranked by their chances to win the Lombardi Trophy, according to our simulations.

Let’s dive in.

All projections are as of Sunday evening.


The Chiefs and Patriots are officially moving on to the AFC Championship Game, while the Rams and Saints have punched their ticket to the NFC title game.

The Saints and Chiefs are both 3-point favorites to win their conference matchups at their respective home stadiums.

Our projections give the Saints (59.3%) and Chiefs (58.2%) the best chance to advance to the Super Bowl next weekend.

Saints-Chiefs is also the most likely Super Bowl matchup (34.54%) followed by Saints-Patriots (24.77%).

1. New Orleans Saints

  • Chance to make Super Bowl 53: 59.3%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl 53: 31.9%

2. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make Super Bowl 53: 58.2%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl 53: 27.8%

3. Los Angeles Rams

  • Chance to make Super Bowl 53: 40.7%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl 53: 20.9%

4. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make Super Bowl 53: 41.8%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl 53: 19.4%


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