Will Super Bowl 53 Go to Overtime? Odds, History Behind This Prop Bet
Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
- Will there be overtime in Super Bowl 53 between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams?
- Evan Abrams digs into the history and numbers to find out whether there's value in betting "yes" on an OT prop.
This season’s conference championships offered fans a first for NFL playoffs: Multiple overtime games on the same day.
So what are the odds we get another overtime game in Atlanta? Let’s take a look at the history of overtime and its correlation to the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
History of Overtime
Only one of the past 52 Super Bowls have gone to overtime: When the Patriots trailed the Falcons, 28-3, in Super Bowl 51 late in the third quarter then scored 25 unanswered points — including a game-tying touchdown and two-point conversion to force overtime.
Tom Brady and the Patriots won the coin toss and drove down the field, never even facing a third down. Then James White scored the game-winning touchdown to complete the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history.
Six of the 52 Super Bowls have finished with a margin of three points, three finished with a margin of seven and one finished with a margin of eight. Eight of those collective 10 featured a moment at the end of the game when overtime was possible given the margin, but it took until the 2016 season for it to happen.
The Patriots have been involved in the past five Super Bowls that could have went (or did go) to overtime: 36, 38, 39, 42 and 51.
The Odds Behind Overtime
The odds that there will be overtime in Super Bowl 53 is +700, and -1100 that there won’t be. So if you wagered $100 on there to be overtime, you’d win $700 and return $800 in total.
Eliminating the vig from the odds itself, +700 equates to approximately a 12% chance to cash.
The odds for there to be overtime in last season’s Super Bowl were +600 for “yes” and -900 for “no,” which took away a bit of value when it comes to betting on the “yes” proposition.
With overtime only occurring once in the Super Bowl’s 52-year history, let’s broaden this lens to the regular season and playoffs.
The Math Behind Overtime
Overtime occurring just once in 52 Super Bowls is good for a 1.9% rate, while the 314 times overtime has happened in the 2,560 regular-season games over the past decade is good for a 12.3% rate.
With such a large gap between the percentage of games to go to overtime in the Super Bowl vs. regular season, the obvious next layer is the playoffs. The games are tighter, the teams are better and the games theoretically have a better chance to enter an extra period.
Twenty of the 109 playoff games over the past decade have gone to overtime, good for a 18.3% rate — a 6% increase from the regular season.
Let’s do a quick recap…
- 18.3% playoff games go to overtime, which should equate to about a +450 or 9-2 bet.
- 12.3% of regular-season games go to overtime, which should equate to about a +700 bet.
- 1.9% of Super Bowls have gone to overtime, which should equate to about a 50-1 long shot.
If you’re looking to compare the regular-season average (12.3%, +700) and the odds being offered by a majority of sports books (+700), the value proposition is relatively equal, which is the largest sample size of the group.