Super Bowl 53 Prop Bet: Will Patriots or Rams Score 3 Straight Times?
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12)
- The Westgate Sportsbook is offering a Super Bowl 53 prop bet regarding either team scoring three straight times.
- Using our Bet Labs software, we analyze how often teams score three straight times in the NFL playoffs.
One of the first prop bets I ever placed was during Super Bowl 41 between the Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears. I bet that one of the teams would score at least three straight times.
Peyton Manning and the Colts fell behind 14-6 after the first quarter but scored 16 unanswered points to help Manning win his first championship. More importantly, Indy’s field goal, touchdown, field goal, field goal stretch during the second and third quarters cashed my prop bet.
I’ve bet “yes” on three straight scores every Super Bowl since that fateful night, going 8-4. I’ll be on yes once again during Super Bowl 53 and history suggests you should place this wager as well.
Will either team score 3 straight times?
- Yes -220
- No +180
Per the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook this prop excludes extra points and two-point conversions but includes safeties. For example, a yes bet would cash if the Patriots score a touchdown, Patriots kick a field goal and Patriots score a touchdown without the Rams scoring in between.
At -220 odds, the implied probability of yes hitting is 68.8%. According to the Bet Labs database, there have been 175 NFL Playoff games since the 2003-04 season. In 114 (65.1%) of those games at least one team has scored three straight times.
That’s close but not good enough to say betting yes has positive expected value. However, context is important and a team has scored three straight times more often in higher-scoring games.
Since 2003 there have been 32 playoff games with an over/under of 50 or more points, and one team has scored three straight times in 22 of them (68.8%). In games with over/unders of 55 or more points, yes has gone 10-1 during that time.
The Patriots-Rams over/under is 56. Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout which has been beneficial for yes hitting on this prop bet.