Koerner’s Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets: Bank on James White as a Pass-Catcher?
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James White
- Sean Koerner analyzes his eight favorite player props for Super Bowl 53.
- He covers Rams QB Jared Goff, Rams RBs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, Patriots RB James White, Patriots FB James Develin, Rams WR Josh Reynolds and Rams DT Aaron Donald.
For anyone who loves betting props on a regular basis, the Super Bowl is, well, the Super Bowl of prop betting.
With a seemingly endless array of props to attack around the market, let’s take a look at eight of my favorites.
If you’re interested in betting on the Super Bowl MVP, I broke down my two best bets for that award here.
And be sure to check out our awesome prop tool at FantasyLabs, where we compare the player props from various sportsbooks to my projections to show where you can find the most betting value.
Bets with a Bet Quality of 10 have gone 235-120 (64%) this season, so you can find some serious value.
For more Super Bowl props coverage, be sure to listen to our deep-dive episode on The Action Network NFL Podcast.
Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets: Quarterback
Jared Goff under 8.5 rush yards -110 (FanDuel/Westgate)
There isn’t a ton of value in the QB player prop market. Both QBs passing yards, TDs, attempts, completions and interceptions are right in line with what I have.
However, Jared Goff rushing yards is being offered at 8.5 at most books. A fair line for this would be closer to 6.5. So it’s off by only two yards, but that makes a world of difference in this market.
Goff has rushed for fewer than 8.5 yards in 11 of 18 games this year, good for a 61% hit rate.
I rate this as hitting only 55-58% of the time simply due to the Rams being slight underdogs here.
It’s possible he sneaks off for a 9-10 yard gain, and if that happens, we’d need the Rams to get in a victory formation for a couple kneel-downs from Goff to cash here.
If you are betting the Rams against the spread/moneyline, this is a nice bet to supplement your action, as it’s highly correlated with a Rams win.