Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Kicker Prop Bet: How Many Field Goals Will Greg Zuerlein Make?
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- He looks ahead to Super Bowl 53 and highlights his favorite kicker prop for the big game, featuring Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
18-15-3, +10.23 Units
- Golf: 2-2-1, +0.30 Units
- NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
- NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
- NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Kicker Prop Bet: Rams Field Goals Over/Under 1.5
- Over 1.5: -125
- Under 1.5: -105
Super Bowl 53 (Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS) is still over a week away, but I can’t resist jumping on these props.
I highlighted the Rams field goal prop for the NFC Conference Championship, and Los Angeles kicker Greg Zuerlein made us winners with four field goals, including a 48-yarder to send the game to overtime and a 57-yarder for the win.
Once again, there’s value on Greg the Leg’s kicking prop this week.
Although this prop isn’t technically exclusive to Zuerlein, he’s the guy who will attempt field goals for the Rams, barring injury.
I typically don’t like to pay extra juice, but Zuerlein indoors in a game with a high over/under is too good to ignore.
Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have attempted an NFL-high 84 field goals over the past two seasons (excluding playoffs), and Zuerlein has connected on an elite 91.5% of his field-goal attempts in that time.
He’s been money from all distances.
- 0-19 yards: 1 for 1
- 20-29 yards: 17 for 17
- 30-39 yards: 21 for 22
- 40-49 yards: 16 for 18
- 50+ yards: 10 for 13
Including the playoffs, Zuerlein has played 27 games over the past two years.
In just four of them has he failed to kick two-plus field goals. And in only two of them has he not gotten at least two attempts.
In his 13 games this season, Legatron has made two field goals in every game but one. He’s had at least two attempts in every contest.
Unless the Rams get down by two-plus touchdowns, Zuerlein has a great chance to kick multiple field goals.
At 1.5, I’d bet this line to -200. At -125, I’d bet it to 2.0.
If you’re feeling bold, you can bet over 2.5 at +235. That’s not an official pick … but I’m a bold guy.
The Pick: Over 1.5 (-125)