Koerner’s Betting Angles for the Super Bowl: Why I’m Eyeing the Moneyline
Brett Davis, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff, Tom Brady
- The New England Patriots are 2.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53. The over/under is 56 points.
- Sean Koerner shares his thoughts on the spread and total,
This is an updated piece on the spread and total for Super Bowl 53. For my thoughts on the opening line, click here.
I was not surprised that the line for Super Bowl 53 moved towards the Patriots right off the bat. After their performance against the Chiefs, coupled with the fact that the Rams got to the Super Bowl in controversial fashion, it made sense that the initial wave of bets would come in on New England.
Across the market the line moved to -2.5 behind 75-80% of bets on the Patriots and I thought the line would boomerang back down, instead the number has settled at Pats -2.5 and most books are unwilling to float a -3, as such a key number would attract some heavy action from sharp bettors on the Rams.
As my colleague Evan Abrams noted in his article, it’s highly unlikely the 2.5-point spread will come into play, so I’m much more interested in playing the Rams on the moneyline (+125) or buying the hook and taking them +3 with -125 juice or better.
I’m a little surprised the total drifted all the way down to 56 around the market. I still think it is likely to rise as public bettors start to come in on the Over as we get closer to kickoff. If you are looking to back the Over, I’d suggest doing it now as this number is unlikely to go down much further.
If you are set on taking the Under, I would wait until it slowly makes its way back up around 57.5 (what our projected total is for this game) to ensure you are getting the best number.
My Super Bowl 53 Card
- Rams +125
- Rams -3 (-120)