Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Touchdown Prop Bet: Will C.J. Anderson Score?

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Touchdown Prop Bet: Will C.J. Anderson Score? article feature image

Robert Hanshiro-USA TODAY Sports. Picture: C.J. Anderson

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • He looks to Super Bowl 53 and highlights his favorite touchdown prop bet for the big game, featuring Rams running back C.J. Anderson.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

18-17-3, +8.23 Units

  • Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
  • NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
  • NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
  • NHL: 5-3-2, +2.80 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl 53 Touchdown Prop Bet: Will C.J. Anderson Score?

  • C.J. Anderson Scores a Touchdown: -120
  • C.J. Anderson Does Not Score a Touchdown: -110

I discussed this touchdown prop bet on the Super Bowl 53 Propapalooza podcast with Sean Koerner. Give the episode a listen.

Since joining the Rams in Week 16, backup running back C.J. Anderson has been very productive, turning 20.5 carries and two targets per game into an average of 122 yards and one touchdown.

And this postseason he’s been heavily relied upon by the team, seeing 19.5 carries and one target per game. In comparison, starter Todd Gurley has averaged just 10 carries and 2.5 targets per game in the playoffs.

How will the backfield workload be split between these two backs in the Super Bowl (Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS)?

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we’re projecting Gurley to overtake Anderson and play as the lead back, as he did for the majority of the season. Gurley is the more versatile back, and he’s the superior player.

Gurley has a projection of 13.7 carries and 3.3 receptions. In comparison, Anderson is projected for just 9.5 carries and 0.6 receptions.

With his diminished workload, Anderson is projected for just 0.33 touchdowns, whereas Gurley is projected for 0.68.

The Rams are +2.5 underdogs. If they fall behind by double digits, then Anderson might play a reduced number of snaps because of Gurley’s superiority in the passing game.

I typically don’t like betting on binary props like this that have a yes/no outcome based on whether one single event occurs. Plus, Anderson is a bowling ball of a back, and it’s easy to see how he could score a touchdown.

But there’s too much value on this prop not to bet it.

At -110 odds on “No,” there’s an implied probability of 52.4% that Anderson won’t score a touchdown. Given that we’re projecting him for just 0.33 touchdowns, we’d expect him not to score a touchdown in this game at least 67% of the time.

I bet this at -110. I’ve seen it at -125, and I’d bet that too. I’d probably bet this all the way to -150.

The Pick: C.J. Anderson Not to Score (-110)

Freedman’s Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets

For more insight on Super Bowl props, use the FantasyLabs Props Tool to help you find the sportsbooks that offer the most value on player props. In the tool, we grade each prop on a 1-10 scale. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of at least eight have a 57.9% win rate.

Here are the Super Bowl 53 props I’ve written about so far.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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