Simulations Reveal Best Super Bowl 54 Bets Following NFL Draft

Simulations Reveal Best Super Bowl 54 Bets Following NFL Draft article feature image
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff

  • The Patriots (6-1), Chiefs (6-1), Saints (8-1) and Rams (8-1) are the favorites to win Super Bowl 54.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to determine which teams are worth betting right now.

With the NFL Draft in the books, we are one step closer to the start of the 2019 season. According to the latest Super Bowl 54 odds from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, the New England Patriots (6-1), Kansas City Chiefs (6-1), New Orleans Saints (8-1) and Los Angeles Rams (8-1) are the favorites.

But is there value betting the chalk to lift the Lombardi Trophy?

The Action Network simulated the 2019 NFL season 10,000 times using player and team statistics adjusted for Strength of Schedule.

By comparing our projections to available betting lines, we have found three teams worthy of wagers right now:

Best Super Bowl 54 Bets

Los Angeles Rams

  • Current odds: 8-1, Implied Probability: 11.1%
  • Rams win the Super Bowl 12.6% of the time

Sean McVay’s squad was one of the best in the NFL in 2018. Jared Goff (64.9% completion rate, 4,688 passing yards, 32 touchdowns) took another step forward, Robert Woods (1,219 receiving yards, six touchdowns) had a breakout season and Aaron Donald (20.5 sacks) continued to terrorize opposing quarterbacks.

Yes, LA’s 2018 season ended in a disappointing 13-3 loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 53, but the team is well-positioned to make another title run. With Goff on a rookie contract, the Rams have the financial flexibility to field one of the most talented rosters in football.

According to our model, LA (12.6%) is the most likely team to win Super Bowl 54. Only three teams have lost a Super Bowl and then lifted the Lombardi Trophy the following season.

The Rams will try to become the fourth, and would make back-to-back seasons of a team accomplishing the feat after the Patriots did so last year.

Seattle Seahawks

  • Current odds: 30-1, Implied Probability: 3.2%
  • Seahawks win the Super Bowl 4.3% of the time

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks agreed to a four-year, $140 million extension that includes a $65 million signing bonus and makes the quarterback the highest-paid player in the NFL. Wilson is worth every penny.

The former minor league baseball player is a five-time Pro Bowler and the only passer to win a Super Bowl in Seahawks history. Last year, Wilson threw 35 touchdowns, only seven interceptions and had a 110.9 passer rating — all career highs.

After paying Wilson, it is time to unleash the team’s best offensive weapon. Seattle was a run-first team in 2018, finishing second in the league in attempts (534) and calling on Wilson to throw only 427 passes — third fewest in his career.

The offense will likely be more balanced this season after players called for more pass plays and the additions of D.K. Metcalf and Gary Jennings in the second and fourth rounds, respectively, of the NFL Draft.

With long odds and a great quarterback, the Seahawks are worth a flier to win the Super Bowl.

New Orleans Saints

  • Current odds: 8-1, Implied Probability: 11.1%
  • Saints win the Super Bowl 12.1% of the time

The recipe for success in New Orleans is easy: Drew Brees + a competent defense = winning. Every season that the Saints have had an average or better defense (according to Football Outsiders) has resulted in at least 10 wins with  Brees under center.

The 2018 season was no different. The Saints ranked 11th in defensive DVOA, went 13-3 and won the NFC South. Brees was an MVP candidate completing an NFL-best 74.4% of his passes and leading the league in passer rating (115.7).

Michael Thomas caught 125 balls for 1,405 yards — his third consecutive 1,000-yard season. Alvin Kamara followed up an impressive rookie season by accumulating 1,592 yards from scrimmage and scoring 18 touchdowns.

The Saints have a 54.7% chance to win the division for a third straight year and a 69.6% chance of making the playoffs. As long as they avoid another brutal non-call on an obvious pass interference the Saints have a good chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

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