NFL Simulations Reveal the Best Super Bowl 54 Bets

NFL Simulations Reveal the Best Super Bowl 54 Bets article feature image
Credit:

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff.

  • The Patriots (+700), Chiefs (+850), Saints (+1000) and Rams (+1000) are the favorites to win Super Bowl 54.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to determine which teams are worth betting right now.

Which team will win Super Bowl 54? This is the question everyone wants answered as we approach the start of the NFL season.

Using The Action Network NFL model, which simulated the 2019 season 10,000 times using player and team statistics adjusted for Strength of Schedule, we know the answer.

On Feb. 2, 2020, two NFL teams will meet in Miami with a chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Here is each franchise’s probability of reaching the Super Bowl and winning the championship.

Four teams are clear favorites to win the Super Bowl according to our simulations: Rams, Saints, Chiefs and Patriots.

Los Angeles, New Orleans, Kansas City and New England are the only squads with better than a 10% chance of winning it all. These teams are also the only ones with +1000 or better odds.

We’ve identified the most likely champions, now it is time to place a few bets. By comparing our projections to the available betting odds at DraftKings, we have found a few mispriced lines.

Using this same approach last season, we correctly identified the Patriots (+660) as a value bet.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Current odds: +1000, Implied Probability: 9.1%
  • Rams win the Super Bowl 12.8% of the time

Los Angeles’ 2018 season ended in a disappointing 13-3 loss to the Pats in Super Bowl 53. If that wasn’t bad enough, Todd Gurley’s health is up in the air, the offensive line lost two key cogs in Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan and the defense saw Ndamukong Suh and Lamarcus Joyner leave in free agency.

The Rams have question marks entering the 2019 season, which is depressing their Super Bowl odds. But what has really changed for the team? Sean McVay’s squad was one of the best in the NFL last season and will be again this fall.

Jared Goff took another step forward in his second year in McVay’s system, finishing fourth in passing yards (4,688) and sixth in passing touchdowns (32) and should improve again. Robert Woods (1,219 receiving yards, six touchdowns) had a breakout season and Aaron Donald, who led the NFL in sacks (20.5), won his second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award.

The Rams are the most likely NFC team to reach the playoffs (71.9%) and win the conference (34.8%). Our simulations give LA a 12.8% chance to win Super Bowl 54 — the best odds in football.

Only three teams have lost a Super Bowl and then lifted the Lombardi Trophy the following season. The Rams will try to become the fourth and the second team to do so in back-to-back seasons after the Patriots accomplished the feat last year.

New Orleans Saints

  • Current odds: +1000, Implied Probability: 9.1%
  • Saints win the Super Bowl 11.2% of the time

Last season the Saints ranked 11th in defensive DVOA and Drew Brees was an MVP candidate, completing an NFL-best 74.4% of his passes and leading the league in passer rating (115.7). With an above-average defense and a Hall of Fame quarterback, New Orleans went 13-3 and won the NFC South.

Every year that the Saints have had an average or better defense per Football Outsiders, Brees has won at least 10 games. We project the team to win 9.8 games in 2019 — the fourth-highest projected win total in the league.

Brees is likely to decline as he turns 40, but he doesn’t have to carry the offense anymore. Michael Thomas caught 125 balls for 1,405 yards — his third consecutive 1,000-yard season. Alvin Kamara followed up an impressive rookie season by accumulating 1,592 yards from scrimmage and scoring 18 touchdowns.

Brees & Co. have a 53.4% chance to win the division for a third straight year and a 68.9% chance of making the playoffs. The Saints have been bounced from the postseason in brutal fashion in each of the past two seasons.

Fans (and bettors) in New Orleans could get over those heartbreaking losses with another Super Bowl parade.

Not a fan of the Rams or Saints? Here are other teams that are fairly priced based on our model:

  • Chiefs +850
  • Eagles +1300
  • Colts +1400
  • Packers +2000
  • Seahawks +3000
  • Panthers +5000

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