Freedman’s 10 Favorite Super Bowl Props to Middle: Tom Brady’s Yards, Completions & More
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman and Tom Brady
- Matthew Freedman is hoping to middle a handful of Super Bowl betting props since the numbers differ by sportsbook.
- Right now, his favorite middles include Tom Brady, James White, Josh Reynolds and Robert Woods.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
18-14-3, +11.23 Units
- Golf: 2-2-1, +0.30 Units
- NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
- NBA: 6-4-0, +1.30 Units
- NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s 10 Favorite Super Bowl Props to Middle
We are still more than 10 days away from the Super Bowl, so now might seem like a weird time to dig into NFL player props, but they are starting to be released, and there are some significant divergences that offer value, especially for people looking to stick it to the books by middling the market.
Here’s my general strategy: Right now, I am comfortable grabbing both sides of these middle opportunities at low stakes and for fun. It’s the Super Bowl: You’ve got to have something meaningless to root for, right?
If you’re not familiar, a middle is when you wager on both sides of the same bet at different prices. So if you could snag Patriots -2.5 and Rams +3.5 at different times or different books, you’re guaranteed to win one and lose juice on the other, but might win both if the Pats win by exactly 3.
In a couple of days, we’ll have our projections available in the FantasyLabs Props Tool, and then I’ll examine the props markets and these middles more rigorously. If at that time I want to invest fully in the middle, I will. If the middle opportunity is gone, no big deal: At least I got a small amount down earlier.
And if I want to pick a side, then I can do that too, because I’ll have only a little bit invested in the middle.
So right now these are my 10 favorite middle opportunities, but they are preliminary and just for fun. If I like them as we get closer to the Super Bowl and they are still available, then I will highlight them in more detail and make them official picks.
Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady: Passing Yards & Completions
- Passing yards: Under 319.5 (-115), Over 295.5 (-114)
- Pass completions: Under 27.5 (+100), Over 25.5 (-114)
The middle of 296-319 yards is massive and right in the wheelhouse of where Brady could finish. Similarly, Brady has a real chance of hitting 26-27 completions, especially if the Patriots employ a run-heavy game plan against a Rams defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA.
Rams Quarterback Jared Goff: Passing Yards
- Passing yards: Under 290.5 (-115), Over 278.5 (-114)
This is another middle I really like: Goff could finish with 279-plus yards if the Rams are playing from behind, but he could also finish with no more than 290, because his production has dipped outside of Los Angeles, and the Patriots are second with their 92.7 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
Patriots Running Back Sony Michel: Rushing Yards
- Rushing yards: Under 79.5 (-114), Over 69.5 (-150)
This is a good-sized middle, and I think the range is accurate, but I’m not a big fan of the extra juice required for the over.
Patriots Running Back James White: Rushing & Receiving Yards
- Rushing yards: Under 25.5 (-115), Over 18.5 (-114)
- Receiving yards: Under 51.5 (-114), Over 45.5 (-150)
The rushing middle is sufficiently sized and realistic. This is one of my favorites. Of the 10 here, this receiving middle is one of my least favorites, especially because of the extra juice on the over.
Patriots Wide Receiver Phillip Dorsett: Receiving Yards
- Receiving yards: Under 32.5 (-115), Over 28.5 (-114)
I’ll be honest: I’m not a huge fan of this middle. It’s really small. But “10 favorite props to middle” is a lot catchier than “nine favorite props to middle,” so … you know. At least Dorsett is likely to fall somewhere near the 29-32 range.
Rams Wide Receiver Robert Woods: Receiving Yards
- Receiving yards: Under 80.5 (-115), Over 69.5 (-114)
Oh my, now THIS is a middle I like. The 70-80 range isn’t just the mph rate at which a normal person should drive. That’s the yardage zone in which Woods typically operates. In 18 games, he’s finished in that range five times. His median for the year is 73 yards; his mean, 73.4.
Rams Wide Receiver Brandin Cooks: Receiving Yards
- Receiving yards: Under 77.5 (-115), Over 70.5 (-114)
This middle is OK but not great. In his 18 games, Cooks has averaged 76.4 yards, but the 71-77 receiving range is not large, and Cooks is such a boom/bust receiver that he seems much likelier to finish with a significantly larger or lesser total. Just once this year has he finished a game with a total of 66-86 yards.
Rams Wide Receiver Josh Reynolds: Receiving Yards
- Receiving yards: Under 50.5 (-114), Over 37.5 (-125)
This one might be my favorite, even with the extra juice on the over. In his eight games since slot receiver Cooper Kupp (knee) went on injured reserve, Reynolds has averaged 49.6 yards and finished in the 38-50 range twice.
I expect that undrafted rookie cornerback J.C. Jackson will match up most with Reynolds, and the Rams could look to avoid the coverage of cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty by targeting Jackson. At the same time, the Rams won’t ignore their top receivers in Woods and Cooks, so Reynolds doesn’t seem likely to see more targets than he usually does.
You know what? I like this middle so much, let’s make it official.
The Pick: Reynolds Under 50.5 (-114), Over 37.5 (-125)