Buccaneers-Ravens Betting Preview: Can Lamar Jackson Exploit Tampa’s Shaky Defense?

Dec 16, 2018 1:13 AM EST
Credit:

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8).

Betting odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens

  • Spread: Buccaneers -7.5
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The Ravens are getting six out of every 10 bets, but they don’t appear to be in the sharp variety. After opening at -8, the line has fallen to -7.5 at the majority of books (you can find updated data here).

Not the most consequential line move, but if there’s a sharp push on the Bucs plus the hook, we’ll see this drop to the key number of -7. The over is getting 50% of bets, but the total has dropped from 47.5 to 46.5. — Mark Gallant

Weather report: There’s a shot at some rain in Baltimore, though initial reports don’t seem too bad. Right now, there’s about a 50/50 shot at light rain to go along with temperatures in the upper 40s and wind speeds just shy of 10 mph.

Probably a game you’re going to want to double-check as it gets closer to kick off. — Gallant

Since 2003, 23 games have been played in Baltimore with at least 10 MPH winds, and the under is 16-7 (69.6%), profiting bettors 8.2 units, the second-most profitable stadium to the under in this span behind just FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland. — Evan Abrams

Trends to know: On paper this looks like a mismatch of defenses. Baltimore is allowing 18.5 points per game (fewest) while Tampa Bay is conceding 29.5 points per game (third-most). Not only do the Ravens have a defensive advantage, but they host the Bucs.

However, according to our Bet Labs data, when a great defensive team (20 or fewer points allowed) plays a bad defensive team (28 or more points allowed) at home, the good defense is only 57-74-3 (44%) against the spread since 2003. — John Ewing

As John noted, we have the league’s best defense in the Ravens (18.5 PPG) facing the Bucs, who have the third-worst defense (29.5 PPG). Conditions at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday are projected to be windy and raining.

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