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Buccaneers-Saints Betting Preview: Will Brees & Co. Burn Bettors as Big Favorites?

Sep 07, 2018 4:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

  • Spread: Saints -10
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


Betting market: With 75% of spread bets as of writing (see live odds here), the Saints could very well end up the most heavily bet team of the week. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Saints are Week 1’s biggest favorite. Since 1993, the biggest favorites on opening weekend of the NFL season have burned bettors, going 12-22 against the spread (35%). (More than one team closed with the same spread some years.)

All teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week 1 over that same span are 19-36 ATS (35%). John Ewing

Did you know? Ryan Fitzpatrick made his first start in the NFL for the St. Louis Rams in 2005. He’s struggled as an underdog since then, going 28-41-5 ATS (-14.2 units), making him the least profitable QB as an underdog in the NFL.Evan Abrams

Injury watch: The Bucs likely won’t have first-round defensive tackle Vita Vea (calf), but left tackle Donovan Smith (knee) at least has a chance to suit up after a worrisome initial diagnosis back in August.

Fitzpatrick will run the offense during Jameis Winston’s three-game suspension.

The Saints could be without starting guard Andrus Peat (quad) in addition to suspended running back Mark Ingram, but they’re largely healthy elsewhere on the roster.Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: It’s not hyperbole to say Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are the most efficient QB-WR combo in the league.

They have connected on a ridiculous 72.6% of targets over the past two seasons — the highest rate over the past 25 years (minimum 150 targets).

Thomas has been particularly dominant against divisional rivals, averaging an additional 3.2 DraftKings points per game with a +5.1 Plus/Minus and 66% Consistency Rating in 12 games against the NFC South. Hartitz


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9).

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