Best Thanksgiving NFL Player Props: Ezekiel Elliott’s Receiving Yards, More
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21), Washington Redskins linebacker Ryan Kerrigan (91).
- There are three NFL player props offering betting value in Thursday's Thanksgiving games.
- The Cowboys will look to square their season season series with the Redskins behind versatile RB Ezekiel Elliott.
With two of the three Thanksgiving NFL games coming in with point spreads of a touchdown or more, it may not be the most exciting day if you’re into close games.
But if you like prop bets, buckle up. On a short week, and with a long list of questionable players in questionable spots, it’s shaping up to be a wild slate.
We’ve got one pick from each game for you.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 187-89 (66%)
- Article picks: 31–16 (66%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 218-166 (57%)
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Cowboys are big favorites against the undermanned Redskins, which sets up well for Elliott. While he had only two catches for nine yards in the first meeting between these two teams, he did have six targets in that game, and he’s remained busy since.
In the three subsequent weeks, Elliott has averaged 55 yards on 6.7 targets, more than any other back not named Theo Riddick over that stretch.
The Redskins have proven significantly easier to beat through the air than on the ground:
- Washington give ups 77.7 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, eighth-fewest in the league.
- They yield 49 receiving yards per game to enemy backs, 12th most in the NFL.
With Sean Koerner projecting Elliott at 36.6 yards, I’m willing to play this line up to 34.5, and I’d be willing to pay the juice up to -125 at the current number.
Bears RB Tarik Cohen
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Cohen put up 29 yards on six targets when these teams met two weeks ago, and he should be even busier this time around.
Mitch Trubisky has been ruled out, handing Chase Daniel his first start since 2014. It’s a safe bet that the Bears won’t be taking as many downfield shots with Daniel at the helm.
Leaning on high-percentage screen passes to the dangerous Cohen would make sense, especially since the Lions have tightened up their run defense.
Jordan Howard was limited to 21 yards on 11 carries in his most recent meeting with the Lions, perhaps giving head coach Matt Nagy even more motivation to keep Cohen heavily involved.
The Lions surrender 41 passing yards per game to opposing backs and have allowed at least six receptions in two straight games.
I wouldn’t be willing to play this number much higher, but I would pay the juice to -122 at this line of 31.5 yards.
Falcons RB Tevin Coleman
Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
While this is a modest number that Coleman has surpassed in three of his past six games, he’s up against one of this season’s strongest prop betting trends.
Running backs facing New Orleans have gone under their yardage total in eight of nine games; stymieing the likes of Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, and Joe Mixon. Peyton Barber was the only back to hit the over.
Every other running back has fallen short of the betting line by an average of 24.6 yards against the Saints, including Coleman (33 yards on 15 carries in Week 3).
Between favorable game scripts that force the opposition to pass, and a front seven allowing 3.34 yards per carry, the Saints have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL.
As double-digit road underdogs (see live odds here), the Falcons will be hard pressed to establish the run.
I’d still play this line if it was set at 47.5 yards, but it’s already so low that you don’t want to push it too much. I’d pay the juice to -122 at the current line.