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The Right Reid: Kansas City Chiefs 5-Year Betting Run Under Andy

  • Andy Reid has gone over his teams' season over/under win total 14 times in 19 seasons since becoming a head coach in 1999
  • Kansas City's win total currently sits at 8.5 wins.
  • The Chiefs face arguably the toughest schedule in the AFC

What Andy Reid has accomplished in his first five seasons in Kansas City is nothing short of a masterpiece.

After making the playoffs and winning 10-plus games in four of his first five years, Reid joins Marty Schottenheimer as the only other Chiefs head coach to make the playoffs in three consecutive seasons.

This isn’t breaking news: Throughout his entire coaching career, Reid’s biggest accomplishment has always been consistently exceeding expectations.

Right On ‘Que

Did You Know: Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 1 of only 2 teams with an over .500 straight-up record as an underdog (Bill Belichick and the Patriots being the other).

Reid has made the playoffs in 13 of his 19 seasons as a head coach with the Eagles and Chiefs, and while in Philly, his team went over their season over/under in 9 of 14 seasons (9-4-1 to the over).

What both Eagles and Chiefs fan bases will tell you about Andy Reid, was that he brought both franchises out of a hole when he took the job:

  • The two seasons before he arrived in Philly, the Eagles won 9 combined games, went under their season over/under in both campaigns, and failed to make the playoffs under Ray Rhodes.
  • The two seasons before he arrived in Kansas City, the Chiefs won 9 combined games, also went under their season over/under in both of those years, and failed to make the playoffs under a combination of Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel.

In Reid’s first five seasons in both Philadelphia and Kansas City, his teams exceeded their season win total in 9 of those ten seasons — pushing the one other year.

Head Honcho

Did You Know: Andy Reid has gone over his teams’ season over/under win total 14 times since becoming a head coach in 1999. Since 1989, 20 NFL franchises have fewer than 14 seasons exceeding their season over/under.

Even still, it’s his current run with the Chiefs that’s caught my attention.

Since Reid arrived in KC in 2013, the Chiefs are tied for the 3rd-highest win pct in the NFL (.663 win pct), they are the 3rd-most profitable team in the NFL straight-up on the moneyline (53-27, +13.6 units) and the 4th-most profitable team against the spread (46-33-1, +11 units). Which leads me to this:

Since 1990, only two other head coaches have started their tenures with a team going over their teams season over/under in their first five seasons as coach…

Tony Dungy: Between 2002 and 2008, the Indianapolis Colts went over their total in seven consecutive seasons, winning an average of 12.1 games per year with an average win total of 10.4. The main reason behind the Colts success? That Peyton Manning guy.

Tom Coughlin: Between 1995 and 1999, the Jacksonville Jaguars went over their total in five consecutive seasons. Under a completely different set of circumstances and expectations, Coughlin carried the Jags over their total in the teams’ first five seasons of existence. As expectations got bigger, the Jags win total climbed along with it.

Jaguars season over/under

1999: 11.5 (14 wins)

1998: 10.5 (11 wins)

1997: 8 (11 wins)

1996: 5.5 (9 wins)

1995: 3 (4 wins)

Can Reid Keep It Going?

Did You Know: The Chiefs and Patriots own the current longest active streak for exceeding their season over/under, both with 5 seasons, dating back to 2013.

The Chiefs 2018 season over/under opened at 8.5 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook back in January and has really only shifted about 10 cents in nine months.

Why Reid can do it: Consistency. Under Reid, the Chiefs stay in every game. They’ve only lost by double-digits in eight of 85 games and lost by more than two scores in just one game in his tenure with Kansas City (against the Steelers in Pittsburgh in 2016).

Why Reid can’t do it: The road isn’t easy. According to CG Technology, the Chiefs are going to be listed as underdogs in 7 of 8 road games in 2018. According to Westgate, South Point and CG Technology’s NFL season over/unders, the Chiefs have the 8th-toughest schedule in 2018 and the toughest schedule in the AFC.


All win total information is via SportsOddsHistory

Credit:

Sep 7, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Evan Abrams on Twitter
@EvanHAbrams
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