How Tom Brady Has Fared on the Road in the NFL Playoffs

Jan 17, 2019 9:00 PM EST
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

  • Tom Brady will be playing in just his eighth road playoff game in Sunday's AFC Championship Game (6:40 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Chiefs.
  • To this point in his career, Brady is 3-4 both straight-up and against the spread in this situation.

Close your eyes and picture a memory of Tom Brady in the playoffs. I bet he’s wearing blue.

Of Brady’s 30 postseason games that’s haven’t been played on a neutral site (commonly referred to as Super Bowls), only seven have come away from Foxborough.

Yes, that means Brady has played in more Super Bowls than road playoff games.

That will no longer be the case following Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City (6:40 p.m. ET, CBS), however, which will become number eight on Brady’s list of road postseason games.

His eighth road playoff game is also Brady’s seventh time being listed as an underdog. In the five games where he’s been both on the road and a dog, he’s gone 2-3 ATS. This is also going to be Brady’s second matchup with Kansas City this season. He led the Patriots to a 43-40 shootout win at home in Week 6.

Given the rarity of the situation, bettors should, at the very least, be curious to know how much of a difference being away from Gillette Stadium makes for the GOAT in the playoffs.

For starters, here’s the against-the-spread (ATS) playoff breakdown for Brady at home, on the road and at neutral sites.

All right, so he’s 3-4-0 ATS away from home … hard to take away too much from that (which is to be expected for any seven-game sample). But is there more to extrapolate here?

One thing to notice are Brady’s recent — or relatively recent — road performances. He and the Patriots have won and covered only one of their past five away playoff games — the 2006-07 AFC Divisional Round matchup against the Chargers.

Need a quick refresher on that one? Tom Terrific threw three picks — his postseason career high — and completed only 53% of his passes in a 24-21 win as a 5-point dog.  Despite the comeback victory, he still wasn’t the typical Brady we’ve come to expect in the playoffs.

Now for a refresher on all of Tom’s road playoff games.

2015-16 AFC Championship Game

  • Opponent: Broncos
  • Spread: -2.5
  • Result: Lost, 20-18

Brady’s most recent road playoff game was an unsuccessful trip to Denver. It was also just the second time he’s been listed as a road favorite in the postseason, and his only loss in that situation.

2013-14 AFC Championship Game

  • Opponent: Broncos
  • Spread: +5
  • Result: Lost, 26-16

Other than a near-touchdown difference in the point spread, Brady’s prior road playoff game was almost identical, once again losing to Peyton’s Broncos and failing to lead the offense to 20 points.

2006-07 AFC Championship Game

  • Opponent: Colts
  • Spread: +3.5
  • Result: Lost, 38-34

Different team, same opposing QB. In their five-game postseason series, Brady and Manning each won and covered all of their home games, the most recent three of which happen to also be Brady’s most recent three road playoff games.

2006-07 AFC Divisional Round

  • Opponent: Chargers
  • Spread: +5
  • Result: Won, 24-21

Finally, the aforementioned win over the Chargers in which Tom was not so terrific. Along with the three interceptions, matching his playoff career high, his 57.6 quarterback rating in this game is still his fourth-lowest mark in a playoff game.

2005-06 AFC Divisional Round

  • Opponent: Broncos
  • Spread: +3
  • Result: Lost, 27-13

Denver clearly hasn’t been friendly to Brady in his postseason career. Tom has not only gone winless at Mile High in the postseason, but he’s never covered the spread in his three attempts on the road against the Broncos.

2004-05 AFC Championship Game

  • Opponent: Steelers
  • Spread: -2.5
  • Result: Won, 41-27

It’s hard to believe that it’s been 14 years since Brady played well in a road playoff victory, but here we are. His two touchdowns, zero picks and 207 yards on 14 of 21 passing gave him a 130.5 quarterback rating — his third-highest rating in a playoff game.

2001-02 AFC Championship Game

  • Opponent: Steelers
  • Spread: +10
  • Result: Won, 24-17

Although he started this game, Brady couldn’t finish it thanks to a first-half ankle injury. He still posted a solid 115 yards on 12 of 18 passing, and of course, was plenty healthy again two weeks later.

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