Fantasy Football Impact of Tyreek Hill Not Being Suspended
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyreek Hill
The NFL released a statement Friday morning indicating that Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill has not violated the league’s Personal Conduct Policy and will not be suspended.
Tom Pelissero has reported that the investigation by the Kansas Department for Children and Families remains ongoing, but that isn’t a criminal investigation of Hill or Crystal Espinal.
This is obviously a sensitive issue, with welfare of Hill and Espinal’s young child at the center of all these investigations, but with a player of Hill’s caliber, we have to discuss the on-field impact.
Hill will again one of the top available fantasy football investments at the WR position. His average draft position at the moment (WR16) is much lower than it will be in the coming weeks and months, as the public was almost assuredly assuming he’d face at least some sort of suspension to start the season.
Check out our Fantasy Football Draft Kit to see our experts’ updated rankings and projections in our custom cheat sheet builder.
Since entering the league in 2016, Hill has generally cleared this ADP with ease:
- 2016: PPR WR18
- 2017: WR8
- 2018: WR1
Speed, for lack of a better word, is good — and Hill is faster than just about anybody we’ve ever seen step foot onto the gridiron.
Only Antonio Brown (36 touchdowns) and Davante Adams (35) have more total TDs than Hill (34) among all wide receivers over the past three seasons.
The NFL’s decision to not suspend Hill for any portion of the 2019 season is great news for fantasy football investors looking to draft Patrick Mahomes sooner rather than later. Overall, only Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett (10.95 adjusted yards per attempt) have been more efficient than Mahomes and Hill (10.58) on a per target basis among every quarterback/No. 1 WR combo in the league.
Hill joins Lockett as the only players in the league with at least one rushing, receiving, kick return and punt return touchdown over the past four seasons.
Imagine a world where injuries didn't exist so Tyreek Hill could get 20+ carries per game pic.twitter.com/Ga16YNpnzx
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 17, 2019
Head coach Andy Reid has consistently enabled at least one highly-productive fantasy football wide receivers throughout the past decade…
- 2009: DeSean Jackson WR10
- 2010: Jeremy Maclin WR14
- 2011: Jackson WR28
- 2012: Maclin WR22
- 2013: Dwayne Bowe WR43
- 2014: Bowe WR57
- 2015: Maclin WR15
- 2016: Tyreek Hill WR18
- 2017: Hill WR8
- 2018: Hill WR1
It’s reasonable to think Hill will again find himself inside of the league’s top-10 most-productive receivers in 2019 thanks to his status as the undisputed No. 1 wide receiver in one of the best offenses the league has ever seen. Overall, the Chiefs averaged 35.3 points per game last season – the third-highest mark during the Super Bowl Era behind only the 2007 Patriots (36.8) and 2013 Broncos (37.9).
Hill should be inside of anybody’s top-six wide receivers from a fantasy football perspective entering the 2019 season. Personally, I’d only draft DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. before him.
The only pause for concern in regards to Hill’s fantasy value is whether or not he’ll be able to work so efficiently with a relatively meager target total. There were 12 players with more targets than Hill (137) last season, including his teammate Travis Kelce (150).
Still, the combination of Hill’s versatile home-run ability and Mahomes’ absurd arm strength make a somewhat reduced target share less of an issue than it’d be for other wide receivers.
I’d draft Hill before the likes of Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster due to their respective statuses as more underneath-friendly receivers who don’t offer the same sort of week-to-week upside as the league’s fastest player inside an offense with the reigning MVP.