NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Aaron Rodgers Flips Script on Patrick Mahomes
Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
NFL MVP Odds
|Aaron Rodgers||-200 [Bet Now]|
|Patrick Mahomes||+175 [Bet Now]|
|Josh Allen||+1400 [Bet Now]|
|Davante Adams||+10000 [Bet Now]|
|Derrick Henry||+10000 [Bet Now]|
|Tom Brady||+25000 [Bet Now]|
|Russell Wilson||+25000 [Bet Now]|
Dec. 28 Update
For the first time since Week 10, Patrick Mahomes is no longer the favorite to win the NFL MVP.
Mahomes was pedestrian on Sunday, throwing for 278 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a narrow 17-14 win over the Falcons.
Rodgers owned the Sunday Night Football stage.
He completed 21-of-25 passes to eight different receivers for 231 yards and four touchdowns (1 INT). Doing so in snowy conditions didn’t hurt his candidacy.
Teammate Davante Adams joined the oddsboard, albeit as a 100-1 longshot, with 11 catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns.
Josh Allen gets a chance on Monday Night Football to put together a Kamara-like game that can shoot him up from 14-1 into the conversation.
Derrick Henry dropped from 50-1 to 100-1. Tom Brady kept his spot at 250-1. Russell Wilson replaced Kyler Murray at 250-1.
Dec. 23 Update
Patrick Mahomes extended his ‘lead’ against Aaron Rodgers with three touchdowns and no interceptions in a win over the Saints on Sunday. Rodgers dropped from +175 to +400 with an average performance against the Panthers.
Those two have been at the top, but Josh Allen is trying to re-enter the chat. He finished with four touchdowns and almost 400 total yards in a rout of the Bills. Additionally, Buffalo moved into the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
There’s a huge drop-off to No. 4 on the list, Derrick Henry. He only ran for 147 yards a week after turning in 215 yards against the Jaguars.
Early-season favorite Russell Wilson is 100-1. Tom Brady gets an honorary spot on the board at 250-1.
Dec. 16 Update
Patrick Mahomes lost a little grip on the MVP race with an imperfect performance against the Miami Dolphins.
Mahomes, -500 to win the MVP a week ago, threw 393 yards and two touchdowns but three interceptions let Miami hang around and opened the door for Aaron Rodgers with three weeks remaining in the season.
Mahomes is still the odds-on favorite at -200, but Rodgers moved from +400 to +175 with 290 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Lions.
It’s become a two-horse race between the quarterbacks. Josh Allen is within shouting distance at +1600, but he’s going the wrong way with a slight drop from +1400.
Looking ahead, Mahomes has a tough task in Week 15 against a Saints defense that ranks fourth in passing yards allowed per game. Rodgers gets back-to-back games against bottom-10 passing defenses in Carolina and Tennessee.
Depending on your opinion of how this ultimately plays out, Rodgers may be worth grabbing now while waiting a week could be beneficial for Mahomes backers. The Chiefs play the 30th-ranked pass defense — Atlanta — in Week 16.
Titans running back Derrick Henry saw his odds cut in half from +10000 to +5000 following a 212-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Jaguars. Deshaun Watson dropped off the board.
Dec. 8 Update
The most noteworthy movement at the top of the board from Week 13 was Ben Roethlisberger falling from +2000 to +5000. While he wasn’t helped by some untimely drops and a lack of a run game, Roethlisberger threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns before throwing a late interception that all but sealed Pittsburgh’s loss to Washington. The Steelers’ first defeat of the season likely disqualifies “Big Ben” from any serious MVP consideration.
A stellar Monday night performance from Josh Allen catapulted him up the rankings, moving from +3300 to +1400, putting him above Russell Wilson. Allen threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns against the 49ers while Wilson struggled, going from +700 to +2000 after the Seahawks’ home loss to the Giants. Wilson threw for 263 yards and a touchdown, but he threw an interception and also lost a fumble.
Nothing major changed with the top two. Both Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers saw their odds improve, with Mahomes going from -400 to -500 on top and Rodgers moving from +500 to +400. Rodgers threw for 295 and three touchdowns in an impressive performance against the Eagles, but even his 36 touchdowns to just four interceptions are deemed unlikely to catch the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
Nov. 30 Update
Barring injury, it appears Patrick Mahomes is set to win his second MVP in three years. DraftKings has him at -400, with Aaron Rodgers second at +500 coming off a sensational Monday night outing against the Bears.
Last week, Deshaun Watson was nowhere near this list. An impressive Thanksgiving performance for a national audience highlighted the fantastic season he’s having, and now he’s tied with Josh Allen, Derrick Henry and Kyler Murray at +3300.
Murray was all the way up to +700 two weeks ago, but a pair of losses and subpar performances (especially for his standards) against the Seahawks and Patriots have all but ended his MVP case.
While Murray declines, Henry keeps moving up. He was +5000 last week but saw his odds go down after a 178-yard performance on the ground against the Colts that also saw him score three touchdowns. It was Henry’s third straight game with 100 or more rushing yards. He has 1,257 rushing yards through 11 games this season. (You read that correctly.)
Nov. 23 Update
It appears Patrick Mahomes has a stranglehold on the NFL MVP race, at least according to DraftKings.
After a sensational comeback on Sunday Night Football against the Raiders, Mahomes has vaulted to -121 for his second MVP honor in three years as a starter. Mahomes only had two touchdowns and did throw an interception, but he completed over 75% of his passes and threw for 348 yards.
On paper, Aaron Rodgers did no damage to his MVP case, but the Packers did not score in the second half against the Colts en route to an overtime loss. Rodgers threw for 311 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, and he impressively led Green Bay on a 10-play, 86-yard drive in just 1:26 toward the end of regulation for a game-tying field goal.
Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Carr made moves up the board as well. As the starting quarterback of a 10-0 team, Roethlisberger is slowly moving up the board, going from +2500 to +1600 this week, while Carr’s impressive Sunday Night Football performance got him up to +5000 from +7000.
Nov. 20 Update
A Thursday Night Football matchup between Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray yielded no conclusive winner in the MVP race, although Murray’s Hail Mary elevation up the board was halted a bit.
Murray threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns on the national stage, but he ran for just 15 yards, his lowest total of the season. That performance saw him go from +700 to +1200.
Wilson, meanwhile, completed 23-of-28 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns. He surprisingly bested Murray on the ground, totaling 42 yards on 10 carries.
Nov. 17 Update
Week 10 saw a few big moves in the NFL MVP market.
Most notably, Patrick Mahomes took over the top spot from Russell Wilson while the Chiefs enjoyed their bye week. Wilson wasn’t at his best against the Rams, which dropped him to +225 while Mahomes went up to +180.
Another big move was Kyler Murray, whose incredible Hail Mary pass caught enough eyes to vault him up to fourth at +700. He entered the week at +3300.
The highest-ranked non-quarterback is Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, who improved his odds from +3300 to +3000 in spite of a subpar performance against the Bears on Monday Night Football.
Nov. 10 Update
After throwing multiple interceptions for the second time in three games, Russell Wilson’s stranglehold on the MVP race appears to be weakening. Wilson, who was at minus odds three weeks ago, is now at +125 on DraftKings with two former MVPs right on his tail.
Patrick Mahomes has moved up to +200 thanks to his incredible 25:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio entering his bye week. Aaron Rodgers is third at +350. He has 24 touchdowns and two interceptions, both of which came on consecutive possessions during the Packers’ Week 6 loss to the Buccaneers.
DraftKings has this as a clear three-quarterback race. Josh Allen impressed against the Seahawks, seemingly rejuvenating his season with 415 passing yards and four touchdowns, but he’s still at +2200.
Vikings running back Dalvin Cook is the highest player who is not a quarterback on the board. Following back-to-back massive games that saw Cook gain 478 yards of total offense, he is tied with Tom Brady, Kyler Murray and Ben Roethlisberger at +3300.
Oct. 27 Update
The NFL MVP race is heating up, and the top of the oddsboard is getting tighter.
Russell Wilson (+100) still holds the top spot, while Aaron Rodgers (+400) moved into the second spot after leading the Packers to a Week 7 win over the Texans with a four-touchdown performance. Patrick Mahomes sits in third at +450.
Tom Brady jumped into fourth on the oddsboard, moving from +3300 to +1200 after throwing for 369 yards and four touchdowns (and rushing for one more) in the Buccaneers’ win against the Raiders on Sunday.
Cam Newton’s MVP odds dropped drastically — from +5000 to +10000 — after logging just 98 passing yards and three interceptions in the Patriots’ Week 7 loss to the 49ers.
Oct. 22 Update
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks didn’t play in Week 6, but Seattle’s quarterback further cemented his status as the favorite to win the NFL MVP. Wilson now leads the oddsboard at -125.
Patrick Mahomes improved his odds from +600 to +400 after leading the Chiefs to a Week 6 win over the Buffalo Bills with 225 passing yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers (+300 to +600) now has the third-best odds after the Packers lost to the Buccaneers.
The odds drop off significantly after the top three, with Lamar Jackson (+1600), Derrick Henry (+2500) and Ben Roethlisberger (+2800) claiming the next three spots on the oddsboard.
Oct. 16 Update
Aaron Rodgers benefitted from the Packers’ bye week in the MVP race, with Patrick Mahomes moving to third after the Chiefs’ loss at home to the Raiders. Mahomes dropped from +200 to +600 because of the defeat, during which he completed just 51.16% of his passes.
Russell Wilson only threw for 217 yards in Week 5, but his late-game heroics were the kinds of moments that MVPs are made of. Wilson connected with D.K. Metcalf for a game-winning touchdown on fourth down with just 20 seconds left in the fourth quarter. With his three touchdown passes against the Vikings, Wilson is up to 19 through five games. His latest performance moved him down from +200 to +100 in the MVP odds.
The field at the top is beginning to separate itself even more. Dak Prescott was +1600 before Week 5 but is now out of the running due to his season-ending injury. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson both moved down to +1600, while a close win over the Eagles and strong performance moved Ben Roethlisberger from +3500 to +2500, just outside the Top 5.
Oct. 7 Update
Russell Wilson remains atop the oboard after throwing for 360 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 4 win over the Dolphins, but this week the Seahawks QB is joined at the top by 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes at +200.
Aaron Rodgers improved his odds from +700 to +300 after a four-touchdown performance in the Packers’ Monday Night win against the Falcons.
Tom Brady remains at +2500, while Cam Newton dropped to +3300 and Drew Brees improved to +3300 to round out the all-QB top 10. Behind Brees and Newton is Ben Roethlisberger at +3500 and Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff at +5000.
Sept. 30 Update
The top of the board hasn’t changed since last week, with Russell Wilson still topping it after throwing another five touchdowns in a victory over the Dallas Cowboys.
But that doesn’t mean things aren’t changing. Josh Allen is now a top-five candidate for the NFL MVP, sitting one spot behind 2019 winner Lamar Jackson.
Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes moved up the board as well. Rodgers went from +800 to +700 in the past week, while Mahomes sits at +350 after a dominant win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Derrick Henry once again holds the shortest odds of any non-quarterback at +5000, but Alvin Kamara took second place at +5500.
Sept. 23 Update
There’s a new favorite in town. After a 35-30 win over the Patriots in which he threw for five touchdowns, Russell Wilson now sits at 3-1 to win MVP this year.
Also making a big move up the board is two-time winner Aaron Rodgers, whose offense has now gone over 40 points in back-to-back weeks. Rodgers comes in at 8-1 after being listed at 14-1 a week ago.
Moving a bit in the other direction, last week’s favorite, Patrick Mahomes, has fallen back slightly to 5-1 — now sharing that spot with Lamar Jackson.
As for the non-quarterbacks on this list, Derrick Henry still owns the highest odds at 40-1. Christian McCaffrey has fallen from 50-1 down to 90-1 after suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 2.
Sept. 16 Update
After taking down a Super Bowl contender in Week 1, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray saw his name rise up the odds board for NFL MVP.
Murray is now tied with Aaron Rodgers for the fourth-shortest odds at 14-1, trailing only Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson.
Mahomes and Jackson remain in the top-two positions at 31-10 and 26-5, respectively. The pair are the most recent MVPs, with Jackson taking the trophy in 2019 and Mahomes earning it in 2018.
Derrick Henry now has the shortest odds of any non-quarterback at 40-1, supplanting Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey.
June 29 Update
As the NFL season continues to approach, the NFL betting market continues to take shape, with its most recent “transformation” coming thanks to Cam Newton’s signing in New England.
The Patriots moved from 25-1 to 20-1 to win the Super Bowl (you can see all of their odds changes here), and saw increases in their conference and division chances, but perhaps the biggest odds change as a result of Cam’s agreement came by way of his own MVP chances.
Newton was down at 60-1 prior to becoming a Patriot, but as of Monday afternoon, he’s been pushed up to 30-1, making him the 11th-most likely player to win the award.
Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes (4-1) has held the top spot throughout the offseason, followed closely by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson (6-1).
With a new fleet of weapons in Tampa Bay, Tom Brady is the fifth-most likely MVP at 16-1, a number that was up near 30-1 at the end of last season.
And as for the leader among non-QBs, that would be Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey at 45-1.