Redskins-Jaguars Betting Preview: How the Market Has Bet This Unusually Low Over/Under

Redskins-Jaguars Betting Preview: How the Market Has Bet This Unusually Low Over/Under article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jamison Crowder, Jalen Ramsey

Betting odds: Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Spread: Jaguars -7.5
  • Over/Under: 36
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: I was curious as to how the public would bet this very, very low over/under, and at the time of writing, bets are split almost exactly 50-50 (see live data here).

The Jaguars are getting a steady 62% of bets and 56% of dollars so far and the line keeps moving in their favor. It took a few hours after opening for them to move from -6.5 to -7, then a few days for the line to move off the key number of -7 to -7.5.

Looks like a combination of casual and sharper bettors have decided that the Jags are a strong bet, even with Cody Kessler under center. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: This is the first time there has been a total of 36 or fewer points since the 2012 season. The over went 31-17 in games with totals of 36 or fewer points between  2008 and 2012. John Ewing

It’s been a rough two-game stretch for the Jaguars offense. Jacksonville has managed only 15 total points and 466 total net yards of offense — including one pass of 25-plus yards and two runs of 10-plus yards.

Teams that score fewer than 10 points in consecutive games are 60-37-1 (61.9%) against the spread since 2003, covering the spread by 3.9 points per game.

The Jaguars are only the second team over that span to open as higher than a touchdown favorite in this spot: The Cowboys were the first, winning and covering the 13.5-point spread at home against the Raiders in 2009. Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Redskins WRs vs. Jaguars CBs

The Redskins aren’t expected to score a ton of points in Jacksonville.

Washington’s projected starting receivers Josh Doctson (79th), Jamison Crowder (107th) and Maurice Harris (109th) all rank unfavorably in Pro Football Focus grades. Meanwhile, Jacksonville cornerbacks D.J. Hayden (24th), A.J. Bouye (25th) and Jalen Ramsey (27th) have all been excellent and rank favorably in PFF grades.

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: A.J. Bouye

The trio have combined for more interceptions (five) than touchdowns allowed (three) this season. Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

Both teams have plenty of key players on IR, but the Jaguars are expected to potentially only be without field-stretcher D.J. Chark (quad) and kicker Josh Lambo (right groin) as far as their active roster is concerned.

Meanwhile, the Redskins could be without tight end Jordan Reed (foot), right guard Tony Bergstrom (ankle, knee), linebacker Ryan Anderson (hamstring) and Doctson (concussion).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Jaguars will be taking on a Redskins team that’s implied for an absurdly low 14.25 points. Per our Trends tool, defenses that are squaring off against offenses with comparable implied team totals have averaged 12.49 DraftKings points per game with a high +3.26 Plus/Minus. Bailey

Bet to watch: All of our experts are staying away from this game at the moment, but we’ll update this file is that changes as more props get posted closer to kickoff.

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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