Redskins-Saints MNF Betting Preview: Who Is Being Overvalued in This Matchup?

Redskins-Saints MNF Betting Preview: Who Is Being Overvalued in This Matchup? article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Adrian Peterson, Alvin Kamara

Betting odds: Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

  • Spread: Saints -6
  • Over/Under: 52.5
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of Sunday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: More than 80% of bets are on the over as of Sunday (see live data here), which is pretty common for a game in the Superdome. Since the start of the 2015 season, the over has received at least 70% of bets in 17 of the 26 games played there, and has gone over in 12 of the 17.

The over/under has risen from 51 to 52.5 since opening.

The spread was rather dormant early in the week, sticking at New Orleans -6.5 through Friday. However, the support on Washington — which was around 45% of bets and 60% of dollars on Thursday — has risen to 56% of bets and 73% of dollars as of Sunday.

This increase has pushed the Redskins down from +6.5 to +6 across the market. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2014, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have played 11 games in the Superdome in which the line has moved away from the Saints. They’re 4-7 straight up and 3-7-1 against the spread in such games, failing to cover the spread by 9.4 points per game.

The Saints return to the Superdome after playing back-to-back games on the road. Since coming to New Orleans in 2006, Brees is 16-7 SU and ATS (+8.1 units) at home after playing at least two straight games on the road, making him the NFL’s second-most profitable quarterback in that spot behind only Aaron Rodgers (13-4 ATS). Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Redskins are one of four teams to cover the spread by an average of six or more points this season. (They’re doing so by 6.2 points.)

Teams that cover the spread at a high rate are often overvalued. Since 2003, it has been profitable to bet against teams covering by five or more points per game after the first month of the season: 354-287-18 (55%) ATS. John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Saints running backs vs. Redskins rush defense

Mark Ingram comes off his four-game suspension to reform with Alvin Kamara a deadly running back tandem that finished No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA last season.

The pair was so good, Payton abandoned his usual “let Brees throw for 500 yards and hope we get the ball last” strategy and asked the quarterback to attempt 91 fewer passes than he had in any season since 2009.

The Saints rank No. 6 in rushing DVOA this season without Ingram, while the Redskins rank second-worst on defense.

Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) celebrates with Alvin Kamara (41).

Washington is simply getting no push up front. Pro Football Focus has the Redskins down as giving up the most yards before contact in the league, and Kamara is the last runner you want to allow to get a head start. Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Saints

The Saints are basically at full health against a Redskins team that faces the prospect of missing left tackle Trent Williams (knee), wide receiver Josh Doctson (heel) and safety Troy Apke (hamstring).

Note: Info as of Sunday afternoon. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Saints are dead last in pass defense DVOA this season and Alex Smith is only $5,700 on the DraftKings prime-time slate. Over the past three seasons, quarterbacks visiting the Superdome have provided a +2.73 Plus/Minus and a 57.9% Consistency Rating, per our Trends tool.Joe Holka

Bet to watch: Redskins +6

I’m going to ask the worst question ever: Are we sure the Redskins shouldn’t be favored in this game? I know that from a bookmaking perspective, the Saints should be favored at home. But the sharp bettors seem to be on the Redskins.

The Saints have given up the fourth-most points per game to opposing teams heading into Week 5 (30.25), and the Redskins have been defensively stout, holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game through four weeks (14.67). On top of that, the Redskins should have the edge in preparation after their bye week.

In a game that will feature two funnel defenses, I’m backing the team with the less-damaging funnel. The Saints are first against the run yet dead last against the pass in DVOA, and in football as it’s played in 2018, the running game doesn’t matter.

Even if the Saints bottle up running back Adrian Peterson in a #RevengeGame, pass-catching savant Chris Thompson could flow like ketchup against a New Orleans unit that ranks 31st in pass defense against running backs. And this is to say nothing about what tight end Jordan Reed and wide receivers Paul Richardson and Jamison Crowder could do.

The Redskins, meanwhile, have a run-flowing funnel defense: They rank third against the pass yet 31st against the run in DVOA. The Saints have two strong running backs in Kamara and Ingram — but if the Saints run, they will be opting for an inherently inefficient type of play; if they throw, they will be attacking the Redskins’ strength.

Given their defensive edge, I’m fine with taking the Redskins and the points. I might even throw the Redskins moneyline into a couple of parlays. Matthew Freedman


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.