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Week 16 NFL Betting Market: Bettors Backing Baker Mayfield Against Bengals

Dec 19, 2018 9:40 PM EST
Credit:

Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield.

  • The Packers-Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX) line has moved a great deal, suggesting Aaron Rodgers may sit.
  • The Browns are getting the brunt of the action vs. the Bengals (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS) at -7, and may move to -7.5 for just the fourth time since 2003.
  • The Steelers-Saints over/under sat around 57 yesterday, but is now down to 53.5 following yet another low-scoring Saints game.

One more normal week of NFL action remains. Who the hell knows what is going to happen in Week 17?

Expect to see some crazy line moves next week and be sure to get on the right side of that closing line value.

There has been one game with interesting line movement so far this week, but the rest of the Week 16 betting market has been relatively quiet.

Here’s how bettors are diving into the Week 16 slate.

All data as of Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Big Line Moves

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (Pick’em)

The line has moved against the Packers big time since opening. At some spots, the line reached NYJ -2 before correcting to a pick’em.

Santy Claus — why? Why would the line be moving away from Aaron Rodgers and toward Sam Darnold? Why?

Well, as PJ Walsh explains, there’s a chance we don’t see Rodgers. Why risk hurting him when Green Bay’s season is over?

If Rodgers ultimately does sit out, the line will swing even more toward the Jets.

Key Numbers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The Cowpokes’ offense had been booming since the addition of Amari Cooper, but it went out and laid a goose egg in Indy last week.

Even so, the Cowboys are 7-point favorites vs. the 5-9 Bucs, who have scored just 26 points over their past two games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7)

Laying seven points with the Browns is a tall task regardless of how well they’ve been doing lately. Nevertheless, nearly 60% of the bets and 80% of the cash is backing Cleveland in the early going.

With the way the juice is headed, it’s quite possible the number will move to -7.5, a line that the Browns have seen just three times since 2003, per Bet Labs.

In that same time span, the Patriots have closed at -7.5 or higher 96 times.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

If we take a peek at last week’s Westgate lookahead line, we see that Seattle was set as a slight favorite. It had won four straight games, but lost to Nick Mullens and the Niners to end the hot streak.

The Chiefs also lost, and to a far more formidable foe.

If I look into my crystal ball, I see the Chiefs moving to -3 as they are getting more than 60% of the early bets and 70% of the cash. The juice is building up on their side, but I definitely see buyback on the Seahawks if it does hit the key number of three.

Over/Unders

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (37)

These Redskins games are surely something, eh? One week there’s a total of 36, the next 37. Can’t wait to see next week’s over/under.

Though under bettors cashed in Washington’s 16-13 win and Tennessee’s 17-0 win, 65% of the early bets are on the over. The total did dip to 36.5 for a bit, but is back up to the opener of 37.

I’m hoping we see it drop to 35.5, but we’d probably need some help from Mother Nature for that to happen.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (53.5)

In theory, we have two of the most potent offenses in the league. Over their past three games, though, the Saints have averaged just 16.7 points and the Steelers are at 22.7 points.

Not exactly the explosive outbursts we’ve learned to love from them.

The books that posted over/unders for this game before Saints-Panthers on Monday Night Football had this total in the 56-57.5 range. Following the 12-9 Saints win, that total has been adjusted to 53.5 across the market.

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