Sonny Banks: My 2 Favorite NFL Betting Picks for Week 6
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll
For those who have followed @So_Money_Sports on Twitter, he’s now bringing his written analysis to The Action Network. You can get real-time alerts on all of his bets in our FREE app.
After having a few days to fully analyze the Week 6 NFL betting slate, I’ve made the majority of my wagers. Below, I’ll analyze my two biggest bets of the week.
With all of this, it’s important to remember that price is the most crucial aspect to being a long-term successful sports bettor. For example, there’s a massive difference between, say, betting a team at -3 versus -3.5. So always be sure to shop around for the best number — and if the odds have moved past the point of having value, it’s better to sit one game out instead of forcing it.
Let’s get into my reasoning for betting both Panthers vs. Buccaneers (9:30 a.m. ET Sunday) and Seahawks at Browns (1 p.m. ET), and why there’s still plenty of value at the current odds.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Odds
- Spread: Panthers -2.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
- Location: London, England
The travel schedule for this London game is interesting. Historically, it has been a disadvantage to fly out later in the week.
In this case, Carolina is flying out early, while the Bucs are scheduled to arrive on Friday. In Week 2 when these teams first played, we saw the game script play into the Bucs’ strength of defending the run, where they rank No. 1 in the league.
In that game, Christian McCaffrey was limited to 37 yards on the ground and an inaccurate (and likely injured) Cam Newton was unable to lead his team through the air. I expect this game to play out differently with Kyle Allen being in a better position to take advantage of the Bucs’ 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Allen has been good enough in the past two weeks against slightly better pass defenses and the Bucs grade even lower individually in their secondary. If Allen can rectify his fumbling issues, I think he will have success moving the ball.
I like the Panthers up to -3 in this matchup.
Pick: Carolina -2.5
Seahawks at Browns Odds
- Spread: Seahawks -1.5
- Over/Under: 46
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
We all saw Cleveland get dismantled in primetime, and I do feel that Seattle’s extra rest has already been factored into the line.
One area I’ve focused in on for this game is in the trenches. The Browns’ offensive line has been a problem this season, but they’ve also faced a difficult schedule vs. opposing defensive lines.
Four out of five teams they’ve faced are ranked inside the top eight in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. This matchup against the Seahawks, who rank middle of the pack in both categories, is actually a step down in competition for the Browns.
I do expect a better showing from the Browns’ offensive line giving Baker Mayfield more time and the opportunity to take advantage of the Seahawks through the air, where they rank as average but have only faced passing offenses with an average rank of 21st in the league.
I make this game Cleveland -1 and would bet the Browns at pick’em or better.
Pick: Cleveland +1.5