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Koerner: The ‘Most Yardage’ Props With Betting Value for NFL Wild Card Weekend

Jan 05, 2019 6:00 AM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: (left to right) Ezekiel Elliott (21), Mitchell Trubisky (10), DeAndre Hopkins (10).

  • One offshore sportsbook is offering odds for which players will accumulate the most rushing, passing and receiving yards during the NFL's wild-card weekend.
  • Ezekiel Elliott is the favorite to post the most rushing yards, while Andrew Luck and DeAndre Hopkins are the favorites for the passing and receiving categories, respectively.

The playoffs are here, and while we’re still providing our Action Network positional rankings and plenty of DFS content and projections over at FantasyLabs, I’ll be digging into more props analysis, too.

If you’re intimidated by betting props, don’t be. We’ve got a great prop tool over at FantasyLabs that leverages our industry-leading projections.

I’ll use those same projections to highlight where there’s betting value on various props posted ahead of wild-card weekend.

Let’s start with the “most yardage” props.

All odds as of 9 a.m. ET on Thursday. 

Most Rushing Yards

Which player will have the most rushing yards during wild-card weekend?

To no surprise, Ezekiel Elliott is a huge favorite here. The book likely had to inflate his odds a bit; he’d get hammered at anything greater than +200. The Cowboys should give him at least 25 touches against the Seahawks this week, especially since controlling time of possession and limiting turnovers is paramount to winning playoff games.

But that use might not all be as a pure runner: The Cowboys used Elliott much more in the pass game this season. He saw career highs in receptions (77) and receiving yards (567).

Heading into this season, Zeke had been given 20 or more carries in 84% of his starts. This season he saw 20-plus carries in only 47% of his starts.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have their own version of Zeke in Chris Carson. They will likely gameplan him to get a ton of carries and utilize Mike Davis as the pass-catching back.

This allows Carson’s rushing-yard ceiling to be quite high. This was clear in how he closed the regular season, posting more than 115 rushing yards in each of his last three games.

They wisely adjusted their Carson line from +800 to +700 on Thursday morning, but there’s still a little value at the new number, as I make the fair odds +676.

The only other value at the moment would be Marlon Mack at +900. Mack took over as the Colts’ workhorse back around mid-season after spending the first several games dealing with a hamstring issue.

Mack is never a lock for 20-plus touches, but if the game script goes in his favor, we have seen him put up big rushing numbers this year with four games of 115-plus rushing yards and two of 130-plus.

He has the ceiling to warrant a light bet at 9-1 odds.

Bets with value: Chris Carson (+700) and Marlon Mack (+900)

Most Passing Yards

Which player will have the most passing yards during wild-card weekend?