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Locky’s 1st Period NHL Model 2/15: Price Above All Other Things

Feb 15, 2019 12:09 PM EST
Credit:

Matt Marton, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Damon Severson

Good morning. And thanks to everyone who sent well wishes on the addition to the Lockerson family. Everyone is doing great.

Last night was a mixed bag, with two of the three large edges winning, and only one of four small edges winning. None of that is particularly impactful or worthy of analysis in the short term. It’s just one more night of trials and the collection of more data. But that’s what happened.

One thing I hope is being gleaned from this series, specifically the downloadable spreadsheet, is the concept that price, above all other things, matters.

There are many forms of analysis you can read about and observe — some are anecdotal and very opinionated, while others are very math and number-driven.

But in almost every game, which I think comes as a surprise to most people, there is actually a number at each end of the spectrum where you should consider taking each side.

And that kind of goes against the “This is my lock of the century, this team is due, they’re gonna crush their opponent!” philosophy. Really, the price (or point spread, or total) you are able to capture (and for how much) is everything, and hopefully the spreadsheet helps explain that concept, even on a very basic level.


A Reminder

If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

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