Locky’s 1st Period NHL Model 2/15: Price Above All Other Things

Locky’s 1st Period NHL Model 2/15: Price Above All Other Things article feature image

Matt Marton, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Damon Severson

Good morning. And thanks to everyone who sent well wishes on the addition to the Lockerson family. Everyone is doing great.

Last night was a mixed bag, with two of the three large edges winning, and only one of four small edges winning. None of that is particularly impactful or worthy of analysis in the short term. It’s just one more night of trials and the collection of more data. But that’s what happened.

One thing I hope is being gleaned from this series, specifically the downloadable spreadsheet, is the concept that price, above all other things, matters.

There are many forms of analysis you can read about and observe — some are anecdotal and very opinionated, while others are very math and number-driven.

But in almost every game, which I think comes as a surprise to most people, there is actually a number at each end of the spectrum where you should consider taking each side.

And that kind of goes against the “This is my lock of the century, this team is due, they’re gonna crush their opponent!” philosophy. Really, the price (or point spread, or total) you are able to capture (and for how much) is everything, and hopefully the spreadsheet helps explain that concept, even on a very basic level.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

The Devils — An Over’s Best Friend

The only significant edge so far in today’s markets is the over in the Wild-Devils game. The last time you saw New Jersey, they were easily going over against the Blackhawks last night (a team that can’t stop allowing first period goals no matter what they try).

The Devils are a team that is aggressive in first periods, scoring 34.3% of all their goals in the first, while also allowing 32.6% of their goals in the first, both above the league average.

The Wild, meanwhile are known for getting off to slow starts, allowing much more than they score in the first. Their opponent has scored first in 38 of their 57 games so far this season, to be specific.

In a vacuum, none of these particular pieces of info are incredibly predictive, but the team profiles combined with very accurate overall projections can be helpful in creating edges. And in tonight’s game, there is currently a reasonably large one on the over at -125.

The Bet: Over 1.5 Goals

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.