Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 3 Props I’m Betting
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Pastrnak
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Saturday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals with the St. Louis Blues & Boston Bruins. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.
Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey. But in the postseason I’ve had success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 72-34-4 (+31.95). For the Stanley Cup Finals, I am 10-4-2 (+5.06).
For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
853-627-46, +137.29 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 411-308-7, +48.39 Units
- NHL: 138-114-11, +24.38 Units
- MLB: 53-57-14, -9.74 Units
- Golf: 9-13-2, -1.70 Units
- NASCAR: 12-17-0, -4.42 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
Game 3: Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues Betting Odds
- Bruins: -105
- Blues: -115
- Over: 5.0 (-145)
- Under: 5.0 (+125)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
Boston Bruins Player Props
Bruins RW David Pastrnak: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: -140
- Under 2.5: +110
Entering the series, I planned to bet a lot of unders on player props, but of the early lines in the market, I see more value on the overs.
We have to take what the market gives us.
Pastrnak doesn’t have a good matchup. The Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game, and in the playoffs, that number has stayed steady. The Blues are one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.
But Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 3.47 shots per game (including playoffs). He’s aggressive. The sample is small, but for the series he’s averaged three shots per game.
I have Pastrnak projected for 2.99 shots and would bet the over to -145.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-140)
UPDATED: Additional Bruins Player Props
- David Krejci over 1.5 shots on goal: +120, bet to +115, projected for 1.43
- David Backes under 2.0 shots on goal: -170, bet to -180, projected for 1.23
- Marcus Johansson under 2.0 shots on goal: -130, bet to -155, projected for 1.38
- Charlie Coyle under 2.0 shots on goal: -115, bet to -130, projected for 1.67
- Sean Kuraly over 1.5 shots on goal: -130, bet to -145, projected for 2.04
St. Louis Blues Player Props
Blues LW Jaden Schwartz: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: +105
- Under 2.5: -135
Again, I entered the series planning to bet unders — in general, it’s profitable to bet unders in the Stanley Cup Finals — but in the early lines, I like the overs.
Schwartz has been on fire with a team-high 12 goals in the playoffs, and across his 90 games (including postseason) he’s averaged 2.69 shots on goal.
I admit that Schwartz doesn’t have a great matchup. In the regular season, the Bruins held opponents to the sixth-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 31.9 in the postseason, the Bruins are still a team that limits shots with their defense.
But I still have Schwartz projected for 2.51 shots on goal. I wouldn’t bet this any lower than +105. But in what is essentially a coin flip, I’ll take the plus money.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+105)
Blues RW Vladimir Tarasenko: 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 3.5: +115
- Under 3.5: -145
I have Tarasenko projected for 3.45 shots, so even though I hate going against my projections, I see some value in the over.
Tarasenko leads the team with 3.56 shots on goal this year (including playoffs), and he seems likely to be aggressive in the team’s first Stanley Cup game at home in decades.
I’d bet the over to +110.
The Pick: Over 3.5 (+115)
Blues C Ryan O’Reilly: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: +115
- Under 2.5: -145
O’Reilly is third on the Blues with his 2.66 shots per game this year (including the playoffs), and I expect him to get his shots tonight.
He’s averaged only 1.5 shots on goal over his past 10 games, but I expect to see progression toward the mean at some point.
I have O’Reilly projected for 2.58 shots on goal and would bet the over down to +100.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+115)
Blues D Colton Parayko: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: +150
- Under 2.5: -180
Parayko isn’t a voluminous shooter. In his 101 games this year (including playoffs), he’s averaged just 2.24 shots on goal, and I have him projected for 2.28 tonight.
In each of his four games this season against the Bruins, he’s failed to have more than 2.5 shots.
But against Boston he’s managed two shots three times, and I just see too much value at +150 to ignore.
I’d bet the over to +130.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+150)
UPDATED: Additional Blues Player Props
- Brayden Schenn under 2.5 shots on goal: -115, bet to -130, projected for 2.16
- Tyler Bozak under 2.0 shots on goal: -130, bet to -140, projected for 1.59
- Alexander Steen under 1.5 shots on goal: +100, bet to -120, projected for 1.25