Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 4 Props I’m Betting
Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brad Marchand
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Monday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals with the St. Louis Blues & Boston Bruins. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.
Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey. But in the postseason I’ve had success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 80-37-6 (+36.01). For the Stanley Cup Finals, I am 18-7-4 (+9.12).
For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
865-635-48, +140.02 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 411-310-7, +46.39 Units
- NHL: 146-117-13, +28.44 Units
- MLB: 54-57-14, -9.07 Units
- Golf: 12-15-2, -0.70 Units
- NASCAR: 12-18-0, -5.42 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
Game 4: Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues Betting Odds
- Bruins: +100
- Blues: -110
- Over: 5.5 (+115)
- Under: 5.5 (-135)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
Boston Bruins Player Props
Bruins LW Brad Marchand: 3.0 Shots on Goal
- Over 3.0: -115
- Under 3.0: -115
In general, it’s profitable to bet unders in the Stanley Cup Finals, and that’s exactly what I’m doing today with player props.
In 99 games (including playoffs), Marchand is third on the team with 2.98 shots on goal per game. He’s an aggressive player.
But he doesn’t have a good matchup. Even though the Bruins scored a whopping seven goals in Game 3, they still had only 24 shots. The Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game, and in the playoffs, that number has dropped to 28.4. The Blues are one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.
Marchand has averaged 2.33 shots per game this series, and I have him projected for 2.73 in Game 4. I’d bet the under to -125.
The Pick: Under 3.0 (-115)
Bruins RW David Pastrnak: 3.0 Shots on Goal
- Over 3.0: -140
- Under 3.0: +110
I successfully took over 2.5 shots for Pastrnak in Game 3, but at plus money I’m taking under 3.0 tonight.
Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 3.49 shots per game (including playoffs). And for the series he’s averaged 3.67 shots on goal. But the matchup is tough, and I expect Pastrnak to regress toward a more sustainable number.
I have him projected for 2.93 shots and would bet the under to -105.
The Pick: Under 3.0 (+110)
Bruins C David Krejci: 2.0 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.0: +100
- Under 2.0: -130
The Krejci under is maybe my favorite bet. He has had two or fewer shots in 19 of 20 playoffs games (95%). I wouldn’t be shocked if this gets bet down to 1.5, where it was for Game 3.
In his 101 games this year (including playoffs), Krejci has averaged just 1.64 shots per game. Centering the second line, he tends to defer to wings Jake DeBrusk and David Backes when it comes to taking shots.
I have him projected for 1.40 and would bet the under to -155.
The Pick: Under 2.0 (-130)
Bruins LW Marcus Johansson: 2.0 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.0: +125
- Under 2.0: -155
I successfully bet under 2.0 shots for Johansson in Game 1, as well as Game 3, and I’m taking the under again for Game 4.
Johansson isn’t much of a shooter. In his 10 regular season games with the Bruins (after joining the team via trade), he had 1.2 shots per game.
In the playoffs, he has averaged 1.67, but that’s still not close to 2.0, and this postseason he’s had two or fewer shots in 14 of 18 games (77.8%).
In the series, he’s had just one shot in each of Games 1-3.
I have him projected for 1.34 and would bet the under to -165.
The Pick: Under 2.0 (-155)
Bruins C Sean Kuraly: 2.0 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.0: +130
- Under 2.0: -160
This could easily end in a push, but I see value on the over. For the season (including playoffs), Kuraly has averaged 2.04 shots per game, and in the postseason he’s had over two shots on goal in half of his 16 contests.
Even with the tough matchup, I have Kuraly projected for 2.00 shots — 2.0007, to be exact — so I’ll easily take the plus money in what looks like a coin flip. I’d bet the over to +105.
The Pick: Over 2.0 (+130)
St. Louis Blues Player Props
Blues LW Jaden Schwartz: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: -140
- Under 2.5: +110
Schwartz has a team-high 12 goals in the playoffs, and across his 90 games (including postseason) he’s averaged 2.68 shots on goal.
But he doesn’t have a favorable matchup. In the regular season, the Bruins held opponents to the sixth-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 31.8 in the postseason, the Bruins are still a team that limits shots with their defense.
I have Schwartz projected for 2.46 shots and would bet the under to +100.
Also, there’s an arbitrage opportunity available in the market to bet the over at +100. So you could put one unit each on the under at +110 and the over at +100. If the over hits, you break even. If the under hits, you win +0.1 units.
It’s all about how tolerant to risk you are. I tend not to turn away free money, and that’s what this is: It’s a risk-free shot at a small amount of money.
But if you don’t want to arbitrage, that’s fine too. I like the under at +110 enough on its own.
The Official Pick: Under 2.5 (+110)
The Arbitrage Play: Under 2.5 (+110, 1.0 units), over 2.5 (+100, 1.0 units)
Blues RW Vladimir Tarasenko: 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 3.5: -140
- Under 3.5: +110
In Game 3, we took Tarasenko over 3.5 shots at +115, and that worked out.
And now we’re taking the under at plus money.
I’m really starting to like hockey.
Tarasenko leads the team with 3.58 shots on goal this year, and he’s coming off a six-shot game. For the series, he’s averaging four shots per game.
But with his tough matchup, I expect him to regress at some point. I have him projected for 3.42 shots and would bet the under to -105.
He’s also available to arbitrage at +105 to the over. With plus money in excess of +100 on both sides, you are guaranteed to lock in a small profit: +0.05 units if the over hits, +0.1 units if the under hits.
The Official Pick: Under 3.5 (+110)
The Arbitrage Play: Under 3.5 (+110, 1.0 units), over 3.5 (+105, 1.0 units)
Blues C Ryan O’Reilly: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: +100
- Under 2.5: -130
The O’Reilly over didn’t work out for Game 3, but we’re on it again for Game 4.
O’Reilly is third on the Blues with his 2.64 shots per game this year (including the playoffs), and I expect him to get his shots tonight.
He’s averaged only 1.3 shots on goal over his past 10 games, but I expect to see progression toward the mean at some point.
I have O’Reilly projected for 2.55 shots on goal. I wouldn’t bet this any lower than +100, but I do like the over.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)
Blues D Colton Parayko: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: -115
- Under 2.5: -115
For Game 3, I took the Parayko over at +150. He got only two shots, but the over was the right side. There was simply too much value at +150.
And the oddsmakers seem to agree with me. For Game 4, the over and under are proportionally juiced — so now there’s value on the under.
Parayko isn’t a voluminous shooter. In his 102 games this year (including playoffs), he’s averaged just 2.24 shots on goal, and I have him projected for 2.25 tonight.
In each of his five games this season against the Bruins, he’s failed to have more than 2.5 shots.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have the Parayko under as the highest-rated prop on the market and have given it a bet quality of 10.
I’d bet the under to -125.
And, again, there’s an arbitrage opportunity available. If you put one unit on the over at +130 and 1.3 units on the under at -115, you’ll push if the over wins and profit +0.13 units if the under wins.
The Official Pick: Under 2.5 (-115)
The Arbitrage Play: Under 2.5 (-115, 1.3 units), over 2.5 (+130, 1.0 units)