Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 5 Props I’m Betting

Jun 06, 2019 06:45 PM EDT
Credit:

Gary A. Vazquez, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan O’Reilly

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Thursday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals with the St. Louis Blues & Boston Bruins. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.

Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey. But in the postseason I’ve had success.

Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 86-40-6 (+38.27). For the Stanley Cup Finals, I am 24-10-4 (+11.38).

For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

871-639-48, +141.27 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 411-311-7, +45.39 Units
  • NHL: 152-120-13, +30.70 Units
  • MLB: 54-57-14, -9.07 Units
  • Golf: 12-15-2, -0.70 Units
  • NASCAR: 12-18-0, -5.42 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
  • Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units

Game 5: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins Betting Odds

  • Blues odds: +135
  • Bruins odds: -155
  • Over: 5.5 (+125)
  • Under: 5.5 (-145)
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

Game 5 Blues-Bruins: Ryan O’Reilly, 2.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 2.5: +115
  • Under 2.5: -145

Of all the early lines I’ve seen, there’s really only one I like: The O’Reilly over. I’m sure that as more lines are released and the market develops we’ll find more lines to bet, but as of now, it’s O’Reilly, and that’s it.

I bet on O’Reilly to have more than 2.5 shots in Game 4 at +100, and he paid off with a wonderful five-shot, two-goal performance, so you know I’m back on him again tonight at even better odds.

In fact, I’ve been on the O’Reilly over since Game 2: Oddsmakers are likely giving too much weight to his recent decline in shot volume.

It’s true that he doesn’t have a favorable matchup. In the regular season, the Bruins held opponents to the sixth-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 32.1 in the postseason, the Bruins are still a team that limits shots with their defense.

But they could be without defensemen Zdeno Chara (jaw) and Matt Grzelcyk (concussion), both of whom are game-time decisions. If either or both of them is out, the Bruins could be more vulnerable on defense.

O’Reilly is second on the Blues with his 2.67 shots per game this year (including the playoffs), and I expect him to get his shots tonight.

O’Reilly has averaged only 1.6 shots on goal over his past 10 games, but I expect to see progression toward the mean at some point.

I have O’Reilly projected for 2.59 shots and would bet the over to -105.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (+115)

UPDATED: Additional Blues-Bruins Player Props

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