Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 6 Props I’m Betting

Freedman: Blues-Bruins Stanley Cup Finals Game 6 Props I’m Betting article feature image
Credit:

Joe Puetz, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrice Bergeron, Jordan Binnington

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Sunday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins.

Each day, I either publish 1-2 pieces on props I like or enter my picks in The Action Network App. See my master list of 2019 prop bets.

In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals with the St. Louis Blues & Boston Bruins. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.

Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey. But in the postseason I’ve had success.

Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 90-45-7 (+38.18). For the Stanley Cup Finals, I am 28-15-5 (+11.23).

For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.

Game 6: Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues Betting Odds

  • Bruins: +100
  • Blues: -120
  • Over: 5.0 (-145)
  • Under: 5.0 (+125)
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

Boston Bruins Player Props

Bruins C Patrice Bergeron: 3.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 3.5: +105
  • Under 3.5: -135

In general, it’s profitable to bet unders in the Stanley Cup Finals,  and that’s exactly what I’m doing today with player props.

In 87 games (including playoffs), Bergeron is second on the team with 3.25 shots on goal per game. He’s an aggressive player.

But he doesn’t have a good matchup. Even though the Bruins had a whopping 39 shots on goal in Game 5, the Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game, and in the playoffs, that number has held steady. The Blues are one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.

Bergeron has averaged three shots per game this series, and I have him projected for 2.97 in Game 6. I’d bet the under to -150.

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-135)

Bruins RW David Pastrnak: 3.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 3.5: -140
  • Under 3.5: +110

I’ve been on the Pastrnak over at points vs. the Blues, but at plus money I’m taking under 3.5 tonight.

Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 3.52 shots per game (including playoffs). And for the series he’s averaged 4.2 shots on goal. But the matchup is tough, and I expect Pastrnak to regress toward a more sustainable number.

I have him projected for 3.02 shots and would bet the under to -145.

The Pick: Under 3.5 (+110)

Bruins C David Krejci: 1.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 1.5: -140
  • Under 1.5: +110

I’ve been on the Krejci under for most of the series. I’m not about to stop betting it now.

In his 103 games this year (including playoffs), Krejci has averaged just 1.62 shots per game. Centering the second line, he tends to defer to wings Jake DeBrusk and David Backes when it comes to taking shots.

For the series, he’s averaged just 1.2 shots per game

I have him projected for 1.40 and would bet the under to -110.

The Pick: Under 1.5 (+110)

Bruins LW Marcus Johansson: 2.0 Shots on Goal

  • Over 2.0: -110
  • Under 2.0: -120

Like Krejci, Johansson has been an automatic fade for most of the series.

Johansson isn’t much of a shooter. In his 10 regular season games with the Bruins (after joining the team via trade), he had 1.2 shots per game.

In the playoffs, he has averaged 1.65, but that’s still not close to 2.0, and this postseason he’s had two or fewer shots in 15 of 20 games (75%).

In the series, he’s averaged only 1.2 shots per game.

I have him projected for 1.36 and would bet the under to -160.

The Pick: Under 2.0 (-120)

Bruins C Charlie Coyle: 2.0 Shots on Goal

  • Over 2.0: -115
  • Under 2.0: -115

In his 43 games this year (including playoffs), Coyle has 1.84 shots per game. With the tough matchup, he seems unlikely to exceed two shots on goal.

In his 22 playoff games, he’s had two or fewer shots in 18 games (81.8%), and in this series he’s had more than two shots on goal just once.

He’s projected for 1.63 shots, and I’d bet the under to -135.

The Pick: Under 2.0 (-115)

Bruins D Torey Krug: 1.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 1.5: -140
  • Under 1.5: +110

I don’t typically take the over, especially at negative odds, but this line is just way too low.

Krug is the most aggressive of the Bruins defensemen, averaging 2.31 shots on goal per game this year (including playoffs). Even with the tough matchup, Krug has averaged 2.2 shots per game this series.

I have Krug projected for 2.14 shots and would bet the over to -160.

The Pick: Over 1.5 (-140)

UPDATED: Additional Blues Player Props

  • Sean Kuraly over 1.5 shots on goal: -130, bet to -145, projected for 2.02

St. Louis Blues Player Props

Blues G Jordan Binnington: 30.5 Saves

  • Over 30.5: -115
  • Under 30.5: -115

To this point in the series, I haven’t seen much value on the goaltender props, but Binnington is intriguing now.

As mentioned earlier, the Bruins had an unholy 39 shots on goal in Game 5, and I think that is creating value for Binnington in Game 6.

The Blues have a good defensive unit, so I expect them not to allow many shots, and as good as Binnington is, I expect him to allow about 2.5 goals.

As a result, I have Binnington projected for 27.7 saves and would bet under 30.5 all the way down to -145.

The Pick: Under 30.5 (-115)

Blues D Colton Parayko: 1.5 Shots on Goal

  • Over 1.5: -165
  • Under 1.5: +135

This line was at 2.5 just two games. It’s dropped too quickly for a guy who’s averaged 2.21 shots across his 104 games (including playoffs).

I have him projected for 2.25 shots tonight and would bet the over to -175.

The Official Pick: Over 1.5 (-165)

UPDATED: Additional Blues Player Props

  • Ryan O’Reilly over 2.5 shots on goal: +110, bet to -105, projected for 2.58

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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