Bruins vs. Blues Stanley Cup Game 7 Betting Odds, Preview: Will Boston Claim the Cup at Home?
Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan O’Reilly, Marcus Johansson
- The Boston Bruins are -165 favorites over the St. Louis Blues in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.
- Michael Leboff sizes up the betting market and breaks down the last matchup of the NHL season.
St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins Stanley Cup Game 7 Betting Odds
- Blues odds: +145
- Bruins odds: -165
- Over/Under: 5.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
>> All odds as of Tuesday night.
Hockey is a cruel game driven by random luck. And a weird bounce, perhaps off someone’s shinpad or maybe their keister, could determine the 2018-19 Stanley Cup champions.
As expected, the Bruins are receiving the overwhelming majority of support from bettors in this do-or-die game. They’ve been the more popular side all series long, and I’d be shocked if the B’s don’t garner more than 60% of the bets on Wednesday night (see live betting data here).
That likely means, if you want to bet the Bruins, you’re better off getting your play in earlier. But if you’re looking to bet the Blues, you have the luxury of waiting and shopping around for the best number.
The Bruins did move from -167 to -160 at one of the sharper books, but I think most shops will end up adjusting their number toward Boston before puck drop.
Blues-Bruins Game 7 Stats to Know
It’s hard not to get caught up in the hoopla of a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final. The pageantry will be off the charts, “this is what you dream about as a kid” narratives will be shoved down your throat and the talking heads will be boisterous — but the best thing you can do is try to drown out all the commotion and focus on the data.
If you’re betting either one of these teams because of an off-the-ice narrative, sure you might get lucky this game, but that strategy will eventually lead you astray.
Overall, these are two of the best defensive teams in the NHL. For the better part of a decade the Bruins have played a well-structured style anchored by their top line — Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand — and a sturdy defense.
The B’s allowed the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances and expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season. They also finished second in the league in shot attempts against per 60. Those numbers sparkle, but the Blues weren’t far behind in any of those metrics, finishing third overall in HDCA/60 and xGA/60 and fourth in shot attempts allowed (per Natural Stat Trick).
Through the first six games in this series, the Bruins have generated more expected goals, but the Blues have had more slightly of the puck and the high-danger chance battle is basically neck and neck.
- Shot share: St. Louis 51.5%
- Expected goals: Boston 54%
- High-danger scoring chances: St. Louis 50.5%
You’ll notice I didn’t include any goaltending stats in that list. That’s because goaltending is incredibly volatile and hard to project on a game-to-game basis. Both goaltenders have been good this season and Tuukka Rask is the likely Conn Smythe Award winner if the Bruins win, but I wouldn’t suggest betting on Boston just because Rask seems like the more trustworthy netminder in an elimination game.
Either one of these goalies could stand on his head and steal the game, or either one of them could lay an egg. That’s just how goaltending goes in this silly sport.
Blues-Bruins Game 7 Betting Analysis
This will be the fourth home game of the series for Boston. In the first three games they closed -175, -165 and -160, respectively. Judging by the early betting, it’s likely Boston will end up in the -160 to -170 range.
- Game 1: Boston -175 (61.9% implied probability) vs. St. Louis +155 (38.1%)
- Game 2: Boston -165 (60.9%) vs. St. Louis +150
- Game 3: St. Louis -120 (52.2%) vs. Boston +100
- Game 4: St. Louis -113 (51.7%) vs. Boston +102
- Game 5: Boston -160 (60.1%) vs. St. Louis +145
- Game 6: St. Louis -115 (51.4%) vs. Boston -105
- Game 7: Boston -165 (60.4%) vs. St. Louis +145
Note: All odds via The Action Network’s consensus odds.
Once again I think oddsmakers and bettors are selling St. Louis short. The Bruins are a terrific team and they have home-ice advantage (worth roughly 5% in the NHL), but this number suggests that they’d be approximately -135 favorites against St. Louis on neutral ice.
The Blues’ statistical profile, especially on the defensive side of the game, is almost on par with Boston’s over the course of the 82-game season.
Hockey is a cruel game driven by random luck. A weird bounce can end up turning this game on its head, and with two teams that are pretty evenly matched, I’m happy to side with a decently-priced underdog and hope lady luck smiles on a team that she’s ignored since it was born more than 50 years ago.
THE PICK: Blues +145