NHL Betting Notebook: The Best Candidate To Be This Season’s St. Louis Blues
Scott Rovak/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan O’Reilly
Let’s get this out of the way right at the very top. What the St. Louis Blues did last season, going from dead last on New Year’s Day to Stanley Cup Champion on June 12, is a once-in-a-generation thing. You usually don’t want to be the person who bets on a miracle right after one just occurred, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a little bit of fun with this.
Here are a couple of things to remember about where St. Louis was on Jan. 1. Yes, the Blues were in 31st-place, but they also were only 10 points out of a playoff spot and had three games in hand on the team that was holding the last ticket to the dance.
It’s also important to note that St. Louis had relatively good peripheral metrics through the first half of the season. The Blues had an expected goals rate of exactly 50% and were just getting killed by poor goaltending.
St. Louis allowed 2.81 goals per 60 minutes (5-on-5) and 2.35 expected goals per 60 minutes. A look under the hood showed that if the Blues could get some saves, they could make a run up the standings. Enter rookie goalie Jordan Binnington and, voila! The Blues were on their merry little way.
Which current Stanley Cup longshot (100-1 or longer) could, at the very least, give you a little entertainment value for the rest of the season with a very small investment?
You don’t bet longshots because you think they are going to win. You bet them because they have some value compared to their implied probability. A team with 100-1 odds have an implied probability of 1%, if you think they win the Stanley Cup more often than 1%, congratulations — you have some value!
There are seven teams at 100-1 or longer at FanDuel:
- Chicago Blackhawks 100-1
- Anaheim Ducks 120-1
- Columbus Blue Jackets 120-1
- Los Angeles Kings 240-1
- Ottawa Senators 250-1
- New Jersey Devils 250-1
- Detroit Red Wings 250-1